Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad will face North Dakota State in the afternoon slate Thursday,.
The Spartans come in as massive 16.5-point favorites in this No. 3 seed vs. No. 14 seed matchup in the East Region of the bracket, as the Bison made it to March Madness for the first time since 2019 after winning the Summit League Championship.
The bookmakers clearly believe this is a one-and-done spot for coach David Richman’s group.
Michigan State is ranked No. 9 in the country by KenPom, while North Dakota State is No. 115.
This one could look like a mismatch but the Bison are red hot, so something will have to give.
North Dakota State vs. Michigan State prediction
The Bison are humorously rated No. 124 in both offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency by KenPom; they are very average.
When betting on a March Madness underdog, you want a few things.
It starts with guard play and ends with 3-point shooting.
At the minimum, you want a chance at some players heating up and nailing 3-pointers, as most underdogs of this magnitude will be outmatched athletically and physically.
Summit League Tournament MVP Damari Wheeler‑Thomas led the Bison in points this year and saw an uptick in the tourney, going from 14.4 points per game to 18.5, so there may be some hot-hand appeal.
The Bison take 25.8 3-pointers per game, good for the 90th-most in the country, but they also have the 39th-best 3-point percentage (36.5 percent).
They struggle to rebound, though, ranking 292nd in the nation. Thiey are mostly a black hole in the paint.
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If North Dakota State hits its shots, it can keep it close, but if it misses a bunch, look for this one to be a laugher.
There’s a wild promotion from bet365 Sportsbook that if your team goes up by 10 points in the first round, your moneyline bet wins.
So if you want to take an underdog shot on the Bison, that’s the place to do it.
For now, I’ll take the Bison +16.5.
PREDICTION: North Dakota State +16.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
