It took a narrow 82-73 escape by No. 3 Virginia over No. 14 Wright State to advance past the first round of the NCAA Tournament.
When all was said and done, Jacari White’s 26 points off the bench, a 52-percent clip from the field and 50 percent from 3 is what propelled the Cavaliers.
No. 6 Tennessee buried No. 11 Miami (OH), 78-56, thanks to Ja’Kobi Gillespie’s 29-point performance.
Sunday’s Round of 32 clash between the two is virtually a pick’em, with the Volunteers favored by 1.5 points over the Cavaliers.
Tennessee vs. Virginia prediction, odds
These teams are remarkably similar on paper as stifling defenses that win on methodical play. Both rank in the top 20 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency — Virginia 16th and Tennessee 12th — but Virginia’s defense carries a particular sting inside. They rank fourth in Torvik’s 2-point percentage defense, which should complicate the Vols’ attempts to convert high-percentage post-ups and drives.
The Volunteers excel in offensive rebounding, perched at second in Torvik’s ratings, though Virginia’s control over two-point attempts mitigates that advantage.
Virginia has become a much more versatile offensive team than in previous years.
Per Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency, Virginia ranks eighth in contrast to the Vols’ 40th. Their ability to stretch the floor with competent three-point shooting (36.3 percent vs. Tennessee’s 33.8 percent) further strains the Vols defense, which is highly effective but less tested against high-volume, efficient perimeter shooting teams.
Both teams play molasses slow, deliberate basketball (Virginia 271st in KenPom’s adjusted tempo, Tennessee 306th), so that combo tends to favor disciplined teams capable of capitalizing on half-court possessions.
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Virginia’s low turnover rate, and strong assist-to-turnover ratio allow them to exploit defensive lapses efficiently, while Tennessee’s reliance on offensive rebounds and interior scoring faces a problem in Virginia’s elite rim protection with big men Ugonna Onyenso and Thijs De Ridder patrolling the paint.
The Cavaliers’ guards and wings do a sound job at rotating quickly, helping to cut off driving lanes and providing weak-side help. This system is why Virginia ranks fourth nationally in Torvik’s 2-point percentage defense.
This is going to be a wrestling match of interior defense that could likely come down to a single possession, and I like Virginia’s half-court execution to give them a late look.
THE PLAY: Virginia +1.5 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
