No. 2 Iowa State put together one of the best performances of the NCAA Tournament so far in its 82-63 thumping of Kentucky in the Round of 32.
Not only did the Cyclones run away from the Wildcats, but they did it despite missing do-it-all forward Joshua Jefferson.
It was the type of performance that should have turned heads, but it feels like Iowa State is still flying under the radar as we head into the business end of the tournament.
The Cyclones entered the Sweet 16 as the seventh-favorite to win the national championship at 17/1 odds, which is essentially where they sat before the tournament started.
Iowa State vs. Tennessee odds, prediction
Jefferson’s status is unknown for this game, and even if he does play, he won’t be 100 percent.
It’s a big blow for the Cyclones, who will need to replace the 16.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists that the 6-foot-9 star brings to the table.
But if there was one team set up to weather this kind of adversity, it’s Iowa State.
The Cyclones are greater than the sum of their parts thanks to an elite defense that thrives at putting opponents under pressure and forcing mistakes.
Overall, Iowa State grades out as the fifth-best defensive unit in the country, per KenPom, and they boast the fourth-best turnover rate, per Bart Torvik.
Iowa State’s ball-hawk defense should be set up for success in this particular matchup, as Tennessee ranks 223rd in turnover percentage.
The Cyclones are a defense-first side, but they’re no shrinking violets with the ball. They are elite from beyond the arc and boast one of the country’s most clutch 3-point shooters in Milan Momcilovic.
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Tennessee’s defensive profile is strong overall, and it ranks19th in 3-point percentage against, but there is some necessary context.
The Vols ranked 312th in the country in 3-point attempts conceded, which doesn’t bode well against a team that can shoot the lights out.
Jefferson’s status is absolutely worth monitoring, but the tale of the tape points to Iowa State in this strength-on-strength battle.
The Play: Iowa State -4.5 (-110, bet365)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
