Iron Bowl showdowns featuring the nation’s Top 2 teams are usually reserved for football, but their basketball programs take center stage on Saturday with ESPN’s College Gameday in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama is a mere 1.5-point home favorite over Auburn with a high-scoring affair expected, given the Over/Under is 172.5. KenPom.com is a college basketball website that oddsmakers and bettors hold in high regard. It projects the top-ranked Tigers winning 88-87.
Both teams have answered numerous challenges this season, racking up 10-1 records in the nation’s best conference. I fully expect a tight one that comes down to the wire, but I do think there is a scenario where No. 1 Auburn bogs down No. 2 Alabama’s high-octane offense for stretches.
These schools own the nation’s top two offenses, but the Tigers clearly have superior defensive numbers. Auburn ranks 16th in defensive efficiency, while the Tide rank 40th. However, the home crowd is often a difference-maker and could outweigh the defensive gap, but I also think War Eagle catches a slight break with a 4 p.m. ET tipoff as opposed to later at night.
It is important to mention that sometimes road teams can play looser, and is worth reminding everyone that home teams do not win every game. For example, ’Bama’s lone conference loss came at home to Ole Miss, while Auburn just lost at home to Florida.
I am backing Auburn because I think it will be able to muck it up long enough for Alabama’s offense to sputter. Bruce Pearl understands the weaknesses of the Tide’s analytically driven 3-point concepts, and I’ll back the better defense. Plus, Under 172.5 would not surprise me.
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My official plays in this section are 24-13 entering Friday’s pick of UCLA -1.5 at Indiana. For more analysis, exclusive videos, betting news, in-game alerts and much more, please visit our page (onlyplayers.com/pluspost) solely dedicated to Post readers with a 50 percent discount.
