Three-point shooting will decide which side of history the Lakers end up on

When the basketball leaves a shooter’s hands they usually know when it’s going in. It feels soft off the fingertips, the rotation is spinning, the shot feels true. 

But lately for the Lakers, those shots have not been falling. 

In their first-round series against the Rockets, there’s one statistic that screams out amongst all the others: three-point shooting. 

The math is simple: whichever team shoots better from three, they win the game. 

For the Lakers, they started this series scorching hot from the perimeter. 

Game 1: Lakers at 52.6% from deep — win.

Game 2: Lakers at 46.4% — win.

Game 3: Lakers at 41.4% — win.

Through the first three games, the Lakers efficiency from beyond the arc changed the geometry of the game.

But in Games 4 and 5 of the series, when those three-point shots weren’t falling, everything collapsed. 

Game 4: Lakers at 22.7% — loss.

Game 5: Lakers at 25.9% — loss.

In the two losses the Lakers shot a combined 12 for 49 from three. An average of 24%. That’s not a variance. That’s a problem. 

In the first three games, Houston shot an average of 28.5% from three.

However, in the last two games, the Rockets have not only shot at a higher clip of 37.5%, they’ve more than doubled up the Lakers in made threes overall with 26 combined made threes..

“You gotta give them a lot of credit. They made shots tonight, including some guys who normally don’t make threes,” said J.J. Redick after Game 5. “We just couldn’t make shots. We had some good looks from three that didn’t go down.”

One stat that hasn’t changed all series is the significantly more shots the Rockets have attempted compared to the Lakers. Houston has attempted 69 more field goals than Los Angeles across the five games in the series. That’s not a typo. 

That’s what happens when you turn the ball over as much as the Lakers have, including more than 20 turnovers in Games 3 and 4.

The Rockets also average nearly 15 offensive rebounds per game. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the league, and in the last 25 years.

When you lose the possession battle as badly as the Lakers have you better shoot the lights out to counteract that. That’s what the Lakers did early in the series. Now they aren’t and the consequences are dire. 

Part of the change is the regression to the mean. The Lakers shot 36% from three during the regular season, and after starting the series at 46.8%, they are now averaging 37.7% for the series. Much closer to where they were during the season. 

Part of it is bad luck. The Lakers had at least a dozen shots rim out in Game 5. Including several that were halfway down the basket before bouncing out. 

“It helps when shots go in,” joked Austin Reaves, who returned for the Lakers in Game 5 on Wednesday. “Bron [LeBron James] probably had three or four in the first half that went in and out.”

Part of it is the Rockets adjustments. And through five games in the series, they’re finally figuring out the Lakers. 

Early in the series, Luke Kennard, who led the league in three-point shooting percentage this season, was given room to operate on the court. In the first game of the series, he punished Houston. He wasn’t quite as hot in the next two games, but he was still lethal from long range. 

In Games 4 and 5, Houston started hunting him defensively. Following him around like a shadow. The result? Kennard is 0-for-7 from three in the last two games. 

Reaves’ return in Game 5 injected energy and excitement but he was rustier than a swing set in an abandoned park. After missing the last four weeks with an oblique injury, he struggled to find his rhythm in his return, shooting 4-for-16 from the field, and 2-for-8 from deep.

And then there’s James.

He might be the biggest offender of them all. After shooting 44% from deep in the first three games, he’s 0-for-9 combined in the last two.

James picked a bad time to go cold from beyond the arc. Not since last season when he went 0-for-19 over a four-game stretch has LeBron missed this many three-pointers in a row. 

At 41 years old, he can still dominate a game, including summoning his greatness when needed. But what he can’t do anymore is sustain that level of play for 40+ minutes a game over a grueling, physical, and punishing seven-game series. 

And Houston knows it. 

Once shooting stops being a weapon, it becomes a liability. So what do the Lakers do when the three-ball has gone missing? Will they adjust in Game 6?

If the Lakers don’t rediscover their perimeter touch soon, no other adjustments will matter. The math in this series has already told us everything we need to know.

If you shoot better from three, you win the game. Miss them, and you lose.

And if the Lakers lose two more, they will be on the wrong side of history forever.

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