An inside look at how the 152nd Kentucky Derby will shape up.
Saturday’s field is stacked with elite talent. Renegade goes off as the 4-1 favorite in the Kentucky Derby 2026 odds as he looks to secure a third derby victory for trainer Todd Pletcher.
Let’s take a look at the full field of horses, odds, jockeys and a prediction for each.
1. Renegade
Jockey: Irad Ortiz
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Current form: Impressive. Enters the Derby off back-to-back, last-to-first wins, the latest in the Arkansas Derby.
Worth a wager? Mike Repole’s rebel is the morning line favorite but may not be when the gate opens. Distance shouldn’t be an issue. Drawing the rail may be.
Weaves through traffic and gets up to finish fifth.
2. Albus
Jockey: Manny Franco
Trainer: Riley Mott
Current form: Put it in the books. Rallied from a dozen lengths back to win the last ever Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
Worth a wager? Fusaichi Pegasus was the last Wood winner to go on and win the Derby. That was 26 years ago. Make it 27. Bill Mott’s son Riley trains and he can’t be pleased with the inside post. A belated 12th.
3. Intrepido
Jockey: Hector Berrios
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Current form: Won the Grade1 American Pharoah as a 2-year-old. He’s 0 for 3 since. Ran fourth behind So Happy in the Santa Anita Derby.
Worth a wager? Earned enough points to be Derby eligible. Someone double check the math. Scorched a 1/2 mile in :45 flat over the Churchill Downs oval this week but we say torpedo Intrepido. Not last. 18th.
4. Litmus Test
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Current form: Was a disappointing third as the betting public’s choice in the Rebel. Then a bigger disappointment, finishing a dozen lengths back of Renegade in the Arkansas Derby.
Worth a wager? Litmus failed the Test when he stretched longer in the Arkansas. Another promising 2-year old who hasn’t progressed. 17th.
5. Right to Party
Jockey: Chris Elliott
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Current form: Four starts. One win. But a fast-closing second at 38-1 behind the even-faster-closing Albus.
Worth a wager? This Beastie Boy had to fight … for the right … to get a spot in the starting gate. Ridden by 20 year-old Chris Elliott, whose father Stewart rode Smarty Jones to victory in the 2004 Derby. Alas no party. A flat 15th.
6. Commandment
Jockey: Luis Saez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current form: Won the Fountain of Youth by a neck and the Florida Derby by a nose. Broke maiden by open lengths at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old.
Worth a wager? Thou shalt not leave Commandment out of your exotic wagers. Like jockey Luis Saez he seems to know where the finish line is and gets up in time. We will put him third.
7. Danon Bourbon
Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Current form: Perfect. Three starts. Three wins. All in Japan. All by comfortable margins including a 5-length victory at the Derby distance.
Worth a wager? OK, he’s named after yogurt flavored whiskey and it’s hard to get a guage on who he beat. But he sure looked good doing it. Bred in Kentucky, so this is a homecoming of sorts. Putting this wild card second.
8. So Happy
Jockey: Mike Smith
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Current form: Ran third behind Potente in the San Felipe but turned the tables by handing Potente his first defeat in the Santa Anita Derby.
Worth a wager? Lack of speed in this edition of the “Run for the Roses” so 60-year-old Mike Smith may have find himself on or near the lead whether he wants it or not. The finish. A not So Happy ninth.
9. The Puma
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Current form: The Tampa Bay Derby winner traveled south to Gulfstream and ended up on the wrong side of the photo finish with Commandment.
Worth a wager? This cougar is good, but not so quick. Notoriously slow from the gate, he accelerates when the chase begins. A slowpoke starter in a 20-horse field? A midpack 10th.
10. Wonder Dean
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Current form: Won the UAE Derby at Meydan, contested at the Kentucky Derby distance to snap a three-race losing streak.
Worth a wager? No UAE Derby winner has ever won at Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May. Forever Young came closest, a thisclose third. Ryusei Sakai was in the irons that day and he will ride this Japan-bred home fourth.
11. Incredibolt
Jockey: Jaime Torres
Trainer: Riley Mott
Current form: Stalked the early pacesetters then stormed past when called upon to win the Virginia Derby. And 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs including a graded stake.
Worth a wager? The Virginia was March 14 so he is the most rested horse in the field. Or is it too much rest? Putting “Lightning” a not-so-incredible seventh.
12. Chief Wallabee
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Trainer: Bill Mott
Current form: One win but narrowly defeated by Commandment in both the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby.
Worth a wager? From the team (Bill Mott/Junior Alvarado) that gave us Sovereignty. Wallabee may wannabee closer to the pace, then finally outkick Commandment and company. I don’t see it. Eighth.
14. Potente
Jockey: Juan Hernandez
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Current form: Took a perfect 2-for-2 record to the longer Santa Anita Derby and lost to upset winner So Happy.
Worth a wager? Bob Baffert’s uh-oh moment. If he couldn’t get 9 furlongs how will he feel about 10? Baffert then watched him stop the clock in :57.4 in his final 5/8th work. Not buying the morning thunder. A tired 11th.
15. Emerging Market
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Trainer: Chad Brown
Current form: Two starts. Won them both, including the Louisiana Derby.
Worth a wager? Lightly raced. Lack of seasoning. Plenty of legit reasons to doubt this colt’s chances. But he proved he can go the distance and can race behind a stacked pack. Who better than Flavien Prat to find a seam and make a clean run? Is this the year Chad Brown (0 for 9) wins the Derby? Winner.
16. Pavlovian
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Current form: The Sunland Derby winner stepped higher and ran longer in the Louisiana Derby. Battled on the lead befire stubbornly giving way, losing by a game head to Emerging Market.
Worth a wager? Has made the most starts (10). The Louisiana experience proved he can get the distance. Cavalry of closers puts long shot 13th.
17. Six Speed
Jockey: Brian Hernandez
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Current form: Took a modest three-race winning streak to the UAE Derby and reported home second behind Wonder Dean.
Worth a wager? I like Wonder Dean and Six Speed was only head behind in the UAE. That extra distance may have been his undoing. Runs early, tires. 16th.
18. Further Ado
Jockey: John Velazquez
Trainer: Brad Cox
Current form: Raced evenly for second behind The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby. Shipped to Keeneland and crushed the Blue Grass field by 11 lengths.
Worth a wager? May be the betting favorite at post time after pulling down top fig (106). Irad Ortiz opted to ride Renegade. Brad Cox called on Hall of Famer John Velazquez. May bounce off the fig. Without Further Ado: sixth.
19. Golden Tempo
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Current form: Rallied well to get third money in the Risen Star, then third again behind Emerging Market in the Louisiana Derby.
Worth a wager? Can get the distance as well. Like Emerging Market he took advantage of the quick fractions up front. Not enough to get a piece at Churchill. 14th.
21. Great White
Jockey: Alex Achard
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Joseph Ramos
Trainer: D. Whitworth Beckman
Current Form: He’s 0 for 6. Well back of Incredibolt in the Virginia Derby then third behind Albus in the Wood Memorial.
Worth a wager? The maiden made it. Drew in of the AE list on Thursday morning after Fulleffort scratched. Good luck. Maybe $2 to show? Last of 20.
Vic Cangialosi is a thoroughbred among horse handicappers and is the only one to pick Dornoch in this year’s Belmont Stakes at Saratoga. Vic has also lost a few photo finishes along the way. He is the New York Post’s horse racing analyst for all three NYRA run racetracks (Saratoga, Belmont Park and Aqueduct) as well at the Breeders’ Cup Championships.
