Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging winds return to Plains through Mother’s Day as tornado threat looms

After a brief reprieve, a severe weather pattern is expected to return later this month across the Plains over the historical “Tornado Alley,” which stretches from Nebraska south through Kansas, Oklahoma and parts of North Texas.  

Ahead of this pattern flip, severe storms are forecast to reignite over nearly 40 million people across parts of the Southern Plains Friday through Mother’s Day.

Thunderstorms packing large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph are expected to fire late Friday afternoon and through the evening hours.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Level 2 out of 5 risk of severe thunderstorms that covers part of southern Kansas, much of central and eastern Oklahoma, as well as parts of North Texas.

This includes Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, Tulsa and Wichita Falls, Texas. There’s a low chance of weak tornadoes across this area.

A broader Level 1 threat covers central and southwestern Missouri, the Dallas metro area and much of the Gulf Coast east of Houston.

The SPC also highlighted a Level 1 threat that covers parts of South Texas, just south and east of San Antonio, that could see large hail if storms are able to develop.

Different parts of the Southern Plains will see severe weather through Mother’s Day. Saturday’s threat is somewhat reduced, affecting extreme northeast Texas into southwest Oklahoma.

A Level 2 threat covers Dallas and parts of Central Texas on Mother’s Day itself.

The primary threats will be damaging wind gusts and hail, although isolated tornadoes are possible.

Tornado Alley could reignite to close out May

Historically, May sees the most tornadoes of any month during the year — primarily due to increased activity across Tornado Alley.

While that has not been the case thus far, long-range forecasts indicate that a more traditional severe weather pattern will take shape over the Plains sometime mid-month. 

So far this season, the most severe storms have been concentrated in the Midwest, as well as parts of the South, including Mississippi, which was hit by several twisters during a Tornado Emergency earlier this week.

Currently, a large dip in the jet stream is suppressing severe storm development over the Plains, but by late May, many long-range forecasts expect that dip to move back over the West.

This allows warm air from the Gulf to rush across the Plains and fuel storms, similar to the pattern that resulted in the deadly April 23-28 tornado outbreak across the Southern Plains.

Long-range forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) show above-average rain expected across the Southwest and central Plains.

Like any long-range forecast, however, conditions can change, so the FOX Forecast Center will continue monitoring any changes.