One of the best features of Grand Slam tennis will be on display on Tuesday when World No. 3 Alexander Zverev takes on teen sensation Rafael Jodar in the quarterfinals at the French Open.
In what is being billed as the match of the tournament, we’ll see a clash of generations under the lights at Court Philippe-Chatrier.
Zverev, 29, is the consensus “best of the rest” behind Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner on the ATP Tour, but he’s yet to win his maiden Grand Slam. The German has come painfully close, having lost three finals (two in five sets) and seven semifinals. Approaching 30, Zverev may not have too many more cracks at the cup. And he’s almost certainly not going to get a better chance than the one he has before him.
With Sinner, Alcaraz, and Novak Djokovic out of the picture in Paris, this is Zverev’s tournament to lose.
Prior to Monday’s action, Zverev was a +120 favorite to win the French Open, while Tennis Abstract’s model has his odds at 37.5 percent.
The one wrench in all of this is that Zverev is in a tricky section of the draw and faces a stiff test from Jodar, a rising superstar and another Spaniard looking to carry on the tradition behind Rafael Nadal and Alcaraz.
French Open: Jodar vs. Zverev odds, pick
Jodar burst onto the tennis scene in 2026.
The native of Baeza started the season as the No. 165 player in the world, but a sensational clay-court season has seen him vault all the way to No. 27. According to Tennis Abstract’s ELO model, he’s even higher at No. 7.
Just like with Nadal and Alcaraz, Jodar’s prowess on the dirt has turned him into a headliner overnight. But there is something different about Jodar compared to his Spanish predecessors.
Unlike Nadal, who went 112-4 at Roland Garros by grinding opponents into dust, Jodar is a power-first player who can smash his way through you. He can do the grinding bit, but he’s also going to try to hit through you.
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He’s not too dissimilar from Zverev, a toolsy player who can beat you in several ways.
The only difference is the pressure of the moment that these two players are staring down on Tuesday. For Zverev, this has to be it. A serial bridesmaid, the cutting room floor of Zverev’s career is littered with meltdowns in the biggest moments. In 2024, he had Carlos Alcaraz on the ropes in the final at Roland Garros. He dropped the last two sets 6-1, 6-2. The weight of all of those close-but-no-cigar moments will be on his shoulders.
For Jodar, this is house money. He’s a teenager, just a few months removed from playing for the University of Virginia, and playing in his first French Open. It’s the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam, so it’s the biggest match of his career, but he’s dealing with very different baggage compared to Zverev.
Jodar, who has already shown an ability to hang in during tricky moments in a pair of five-set victories in this tournament, should be free to let it rip on Tuesday. It’s hard to say the same about Zverev.
The Play: Rafael Jodar moneyline (+230, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
