Don’t let Monday’s futile efforts from the United States Men’s National Team fool you.
Belgium’s 4-1 clinic over the Stars and Stripes in the Round of 16 was more of a fundamental mismatch than a testament to pure offensive firepower.
In fact, none of Belgium’s five opponents in the World Cup rank above 15th in FotMob rating, a metric that calculates performance data to measure a team’s overall impact.
They may be peppering the goal with the second-most shots on target overall, but that number means less when they discover they rank in the bottom half in conversion.
Spain — the World Cup’s leader in expected goal difference — will present a beast that De Rode Duivels have yet to contend with. Throughout five matches, La Roja is the only team left that’s yet to concede a goal, having allowed just five shots on target from 29 total attempts.
Belgium vs. Spain World Cup prediction, best bets
The Spaniards are priced at -300 to advance and -150 to win in 90 minutes in Friday’s quarter-final clash against the Belgians. Their price of +140 at DraftKings Sportsbook to record a sixth consecutive clean sheet is where the value is.
That’s large in part because there’s no stronger force in the midfield than the Spaniards. Rodri and Pedri have dictated the tempo there against everyone, and Spain leads the remaining eight teams in possession with a 65.6 percent clip.
Belgium’s biggest weakness — especially without the ball — is in those central areas.
Against the Portuguese, Spain absorbed the limited danger they allowed and neutralized Cristiano Ronaldo. Now facing a transition-based team that will struggle to generate big chances in the final third, it’ll be adiós amigos for Belgium.
THE PLAY: Spain to record a clean sheet (+140, DraftKings)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
