Is Rory McIlroy actually a good betting value at the PGA Championship despite being the co-favorite?
McIlroy is +500 at BetMGM to win the second major of 2025 this weekend after he won his first Masters in April. The Masters victory was McIlroy’s first major win in 11 years and made him just the sixth golfer in history to complete the career Grand Slam.
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The 36-year-old is going for his third PGA Championship title and this year’s event at Quail Hollow in Charlotte is the perfect venue for him. McIlroy has won four times at Quail Hollow in his career, including a dominating win at the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. McIlroy beat Xander Schauffele by five shots a year ago in the last PGA Tour event at the course.
Scoring stats back up McIlroy’s dominance at Quail Hollow too.
Even if you’re not comfortable with betting McIlroy to win the tournament because of his low odds, there are some other intriguing options. Both he and other tournament co-favorite Scottie Scheffler are each at +275 to be in the final group on Sunday. And if you want to hedge your McIlroy bet with Scheffler, you can get +200 odds on the two favorites against the rest of the field.
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Overall, McIlroy is +100 to finish in the top five and -190 to finish in the top 10. He’s also -1600 to simply make the cut. Only Scheffler (-2000) has lower odds to make it to the weekend.
Bryson DeChambeau the best of the rest?
If you’re eyeing someone outside of the top two favorites, Bryson DeChambeau is the top alternative at +800. He’s the only other golfer with odds better than +1800 to win the tournament and Quail Hollow should set up well for him. Its length should play in his favor, and he took down McIlroy at the U.S. Open in Pinehurst in July.
With Scheffler, DeChambeau and Justin Thomas (+1800) among the top four favorites, an American is -125 to win the tournament. If you like McIlroy or someone else from outside the United States, you can get the rest of the world at +100.
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An intriguing super long shot bet is Max Homa at +12500. Homa, the 2019 winner at Quail Hollow and a key member of the 2022 President’s Cup team at the same course, has been on the struggle bus lately; that’s why his odds are so long. But he opened the Truist Championship with back-to-back rounds in the 60s and finished at 5-under in a tie for 30th.
Other prop bets
It may be worth taking a flier on a two-shot win at +350. Six of the last eight PGA Championships have been decided by exactly two shots. Only Justin Thomas’ playoff win in 2022 and Xander Schauffele’s one-shot win over DeChambeau a year ago at Valhalla have been closer. The odds of a one-shot win are +240 and a playoff win is also at +350. The last time back-to-back majors were decided in a playoff came when Keegan Bradley won the 2011 PGA Championship (then played in August) over Jason Dufner and Bubba Watson beat Charl Schwartzel in the 2012 Masters.
A hole-in-one at any point in the tournament is +140 and an albatross — a two on a par 5 or an unlikely one on a par 4 — is at +1200.
