There’s nothing quite like the Open Championship.
Links golf and erratic weather make the year’s final major the most volatile event on the calendar. And if trying to forecast four rounds at the Open is unpredictable, things only get more uncertain when you try to whittle it down to just 18 holes.
That’s what makes betting the first-round leader market so much fun (and so maddening). The field is level for the players. But it’s also level for the punters, as there’s no real science to getting this one right. Anyone in the field can catch the right side of the draw, get a favorable wave of weather and go low on Thursday.
Need proof? Just look at the first-round leaders from the past three Opens:
- 2025: Harris English, Matt Fitzpatrick, Haotong Li, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Jacob Skov Olesen
- 2024: Daniel Brown
- 2023: Emiliano Grillo, Tommy Fleetwood, Christo Lamprecht
Of those nine names, only English, Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood qualify as household names, and that may be flattering to Harris English.
Let’s get to the picks.
2026 British Open: First-round leader picks
Viktor Hovland (50/1, DraftKings)
The Norwegian has certainly started to find his form with a win at the Travelers Championship and a T13 at the Scottish Open, but he’s still flying under the radar this weekend.
Hovland is 45/1 to win the Claret Jug at DraftKings, and he’s a shade higher than that to pace the field on Thursday.
Not only does Hovland bring some stellar recent form with him to Merseyside, but he’s got plenty of experience on links-style courses, and he’s had some strong showings at previous Open Championships, finishing T12 in 2021, T4 in 2022, and T13 in 2023.
Min Woo Lee (60/1, FanDuel)
Like Hovland, Min Woo Lee is coming off a terrific week on the links at the Scottish Open. The Australian shot 15-under par, finishing runner-up to Tom Kim. He previously won the event in 2021, which bodes well for him at Royal Birkdale, which is a similar setup to the Renaissance Club.
Lee doesn’t boast the best history at the British Open, but his history at the Scottish Open bodes well for the Australian.
Haotong Li (125/1, FanDuel)
He’s a boom-or-bust player, but there are just some weeks where it makes sense to back Haotong Li.
He’s not long off the tee or prolific with any part of his game, but Li is a savvy player and knows how to plot his way around tricky courses. That’s the type of profile that often pays off at the Open Championship.
The 30-year-old native of China is just as likely to finish dead last as he is to win, but when he gets hot, he gets scorching.
Li was one of five first-round leaders at Royal Portrush last year, and he ultimately finished T4, but that was actually just his second-best result at this event in his career.
His best? A bronze medal in 2017 when the event was held at Royal Birkdale.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
