PROTARAS, Cyprus — Iran is rapidly burning through its ballistic missiles after having launched more than 400 since the start of the conflict on Friday, just 20 of which hit urban areas, per data shared with The Post by Israeli military officials.
Prior to the start of Operation Rising Lion, Israeli officials estimated Tehran had roughly 2,000 missiles — meaning it has launched nearly a quarter of its stockpile in just six days.
The strike rate of 400 fired to just 20 urban hits is largely due to the efficacy of Israel’s Iron Dome system, which is made up of multiple types of air-defense systems that work in conjunction to eliminate missiles often before they reach Israeli airspace.
Iran’s drones have an even worse strike rate, with none of the 1,000 launched having impacted Israel, according to the latest data from Israeli military officials.
In fact, just 200 of the 1,000 drones even entered Israeli airspace at all.
“All were either intercepted by the Israeli Air Force and Navy, or fell short before reaching Israel,” an Israeli military official said.
Still, 26 people have been killed and more than 500 have been wounded in the Iranians’ strikes, according to the Israel Defense Forces.
However, an Israeli military official told The Post that the total casualties “are far below what the IDF anticipated when it planned the operation against Iran.”
Iran’s barrages have shrunk dramatically as the war rages on, according to a report by the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
While Tehran came out of the gate on June 14 by firing 200 missiles, it launched less than half as many the next day with 75 launches, according to the report. That was followed by just 30 on June 15 and 65 on June 16.
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“Iran’s missile stockpile could be reduced to less than 500 ballistic missiles as soon as June 23,” the report said. “Iran likely only has the ability to launch two to six more large barrages before it needs to preserve its launchers and stockpile.”
Contributing to the dwindling number of launchers is Israel’s consistent strikes on missile launchers. Since June 12, the IDF has eliminated roughly 40% of Iran’s estimated 360 total launchers.
“The longer the exchange of fire continues, the greater the likelihood that Iran will be unwilling or unable to mount large ballistic missile barrages as it loses its launchers, missile stockpile, and potentially seeks to preserve capabilities for the future,” the report noted.
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Israel’s proven capability to target Iran’s missile launchers may be another reason why Iran has dramatically reduced the number of missiles launched each day, according to the report, as every missile fired gives up a launcher’s location.
“Iran faces a dilemma because each missile launch gives away the location of a missile launcher,” the report also stated. “Even if Iran is using mobile launch platforms, persistent Israeli surveillance and attack aircraft presence would allow it to identify, track, and target the launchers.”
