Bad week at the office last week, but there’s no crying in cage-fighting.
We move on to UFC Shanghai with 13 fights expected on a fun card, but it boasts a terrible start time.
The Chinese card begins at 3 a.m. ET on Paramount+, so you’re going to need to be a night owl in order to catch the beginning of this card live.
The main card is slated to begin at 6 a.m. ET, and of the 13 fights on the card, nine are projected to end early — although the co-main and main event are expected to go the distance.
UFC Shanghai predictions
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Song Yadong
Song Yadong is at home here in China against Umar Nurmagomedov, who has been talking quite a bit about fighting Merab Dvalishvili again.
Nurmagomedov should really be focusing on the fighter in front of him, as Yadong is no slouch either.
Nurmagomedov has the best pedigree in the UFC, a true blue-chip-level fighter with an elite camp and coaching behind him.
The Russian comes in as high as -600 odds, but that’s a really high number that I don’t think he will be able to cover and be that dominant in the process.
Yadong beat the breaks off Deiveson Figueiredo last time out in May and, oddly enough, Nurmagomedov could not finish Figueiredo, winning by unanimous decision.
Nurmagomedov will probably be able to grapple his way to victory for five rounds if he really wants to, but that assumes that he doesn’t get rocked before that.
Yadong has never been submitted and his only TKO loss was a doctor’s stoppage due to cuts on his face.
He’s tough as nails and worth a wager at this long price, as Nurmagomedov, as good a prospect as he is, has not shown the killer instincts to get finishes – and I don’t think he will be able to dominate in the grappling as this line projects.
Yadong +5.5 on the scorecards is the play, meaning if he doesn’t get finished, wins, or loses better than 49-46 on the scorecards, your bet cashes.
THE PLAY: Yadong +5.5 (+125, DraftKings) | Small bet on Yadong by decision (8.3 percent, Kalshi)
Yan Xiaonan vs. Denise Gomes
Yan Xiaonan comes into this fight as a pretty big favorite, and it’s a little surprising considering Denise Gomes has won four straight and is 26 years old.
Gomes should be improving dramatically at this point in her career, while Xiaonan has lost two of her last three, including being destroyed by Zhang Weili for the title.
It’s a step down for Xiaonan in theory, but the momentum is not really in her favor.
Gomes is well-rounded, being able to grapple and strike, whereas Xiaonan really relies on her grappling if striking isn’t going her way.
If Gomes wins the striking battle, I don’t see Xiaonan having an easy path to getting a takedown to win minutes.
I’m taking the underdog here to win by decision as an improving fighter at 26 years old.
THE PLAY: Gomes by decision (+300, BetMGM)
UFC Shanghai full card picks
Aoriqileng vs. Kai Asakura: Fight goes the distance (+240, DraftKings Predictions)
Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji: Pass
Liu Ce vs. Levi Rodrigues Jr.: Ce by KO/TKO (-136, BetRivers)
Bilal Hasan vs. Nilson Rojas: Hasan wins, and fight starts Round 2 (-160, FanDuel)
Namsrai Batbayar vs. Andre Lima: Lima by KO/TKO (+225, BetRivers)
Rei Tsuruya vs. Kevin Borjas: Tsuruya by submission (+130, FanDuel)
Jack Jenkins vs. Sean Woodson: Woodson wins in Round 3 or decision (+100, FanDuel)
Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi: Fight not go the distance (-115, DraftKings)
Lawrence Lui vs. Hector Santiago: Small bet on Santiago (+250, theScore Bet)
Xiong Jingnan vs. Julia Polastri: Polastri KO/TKO (+1100, Fanatics Sportsbook)
Ding Meng vs. Cam Nelson: Meng by KO/TKO (+185, BetRivers)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
