Exclusive Poll: Republican Kurt Alme Holds 19-Point Lead in Montana Senate Race

Republican Kurt Alme draws 43.6 percent support in a new Quantus Insights survey of likely Montana voters, putting him well ahead of independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead in the U.S. Senate race.

The survey, conducted September 14-15 among 625 likely Montana voters, found Alme at 43.6 percent, Bodnar at 24.3 percent, and Bankhead at 23.1 percent, with 7.2 percent undecided and 1.7 percent selecting someone else. Alme’s 19.3-point advantage over Bodnar comes with a reported margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

Alme led Bodnar among both men and women, drawing 47.3 percent of men to Bodnar’s 25.7 percent and 40.3 percent of women to Bodnar’s 23.2 percent. Bodnar led among independents, 40.3 percent to Alme’s 34.8 percent.

Most voters who had selected a candidate also indicated their choice was firm. Of 569 respondents asked about vote certainty, 81.7 percent said they were definitely decided, while 15.4 percent said they could change their mind and 2.9 percent were unsure.

Alme was viewed favorably by 48.4 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 38.9 percent. Bodnar had a 43.5 percent favorable and 41.8 percent unfavorable rating, while Bankhead was viewed favorably by 32.7 percent and unfavorably by 44 percent.

The survey follows previous polling that also showed Alme ahead, though by varying margins. Polling cited by Breitbart News in July included a GrayHouse survey showing Alme at 41 percent, Bankhead at 25 percent, and Bodnar at 17 percent, while a National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)-commissioned survey put Alme at 45 percent, Bankhead at 30 percent, and Bodnar at 15 percent.

Breitbart News reported in August that Alme called on Bodnar to return the $1.76 million his campaign had raised through ActBlue, saying the independent candidate was concealing his political leanings while relying heavily on the Democratic fundraising platform. “Seth Bodnar wants to hide who he really is while his campaign runs on liberal ActBlue cash,” Alme told Breitbart News, calling Bodnar a “far-left Democrat in disguise” and pointing to what he described as Bodnar’s positions on taxes, immigration, transgender athletes, policing, and DEI. Federal Election Commission filings cited in the article showed Bodnar had raised more than $3.2 million through June 30, with roughly half of his contributions coming through ActBlue, while Breitbart News also reported that Bodnar had previously registered as a Democrat in Connecticut, donated to Democrats, attended a 2012 presidential debate with Michelle Obama, and staffed his campaign with Democrats.