It is easy to be down on the Ducks.
Oregon entered this month as a national title favorite, returning a potential No. 1 NFL draft pick at quarterback (Dante Moore), one of the nation’s best defenses, and a head coach (Dan Lanning) who was 48-8 all time and coming off a playoff semifinal appearance.
After a near-upset to Boise State and an unthinkable upset to Oklahoma State, the Ducks are no longer favored to even make the postseason tournament (-240 to miss). Still, there is reason to believe in the talent, the coaching, the infrastructure and recent history.
USC has a tougher case to make.
This is the fourth time in Lincoln Riley’s five seasons at USC that the Trojans have started at least 4-0. The previous three times, USC suffered its first loss in its first meeting against a ranked team.
Under Riley, the Trojans are 6-13 against ranked teams. USC hasn’t finished a season inside the top 20 since 2022. Riley hasn’t reached the playoff since 2019 and has never won a playoff game despite coaching a combined seven seasons with three Heisman winners/future No. 1 picks (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams) and a future Super Bowl MVP (Jalen Hurts).
Any hope that new defensive coordinator Gary Patterson would transform USC’s defensive identity was torched when the Trojans gave up 35 points at Rutgers, one week after allowing 30 to Louisiana.
Oregon (-3) — which has averaged 39 points in Lanning’s two wins over Riley, including a 42-27 win last season — might soon be considered a contender again. USC has provided no evidence it will be one anytime soon.
INDIANA (-21) over Northwestern
Chip Kelly left Oregon nearly 14 years ago. It is past time to stop believing he will spark change wherever he lands, even after the Wildcats’ 41-point outburst against Colorado. Back the best coach in the country (Curt Cignetti), whose defense has posted back-to-back shutouts and held QB Aidan Chiles’ offenses under 14 points in consecutive years.
Illinois (+27.5) over OHIO STATE
Don’t be scared. Illini coach Bret Bielema has covered 19 of his past 27 games as a road dog.
Texas (-4.5) over TENNESSEE
Four games into his fourth year, Arch Manning finally has enough experience to feel ready for one of the most intense atmospheres in the sport. Vols freshman Faizon Brandon — an 18-year-old who went 10-for-21 in his only game against a legitimate team (Georgia Tech) — isn’t prepared for the moment or the opponent.
Wake Forest (+12.5) over LOUISVILLE
The Cardinals are the ACC’s only hope of taking down Miami, but the Demon Deacons’ recent loss to the Hurricanes showed hints of their potential. Jake Dickert — who led Wake Forest to nine wins in his first season — is 10-4 against the spread against ranked opponents and 6-3 against the number as an underdog since arriving in Winston-Salem.
PURDUE (+28) over Notre Dame
The Irish will extend their program-best streak by winning their 14th straight game by double digits, but it’s hard to feel safe laying so many points against an offense averaging more yards per game (471.5) than Alabama, Miami, Indiana and over 100 other teams in the nation.
GEORGIA (-14) over Oklahoma
The Bulldogs are due for offensive regression — averaging more than 59 points per game — entering a matchup against one of the nation’s best defenses, but Kirby Smart shouldn’t have any trouble silencing another inept Sooners attack, which is ranked 94th despite two of their three games coming against UTEP and New Mexico.
FLORIDA (-3) over Ole Miss
Everyone is thinking the same thing as Florida coach Jon Sumrall: “Who’s got us favored against these guys? … There’s a lot of good drugs out there [in Las Vegas].” Going with the Gators is partly to avoid the squarest pick of the season, but also an acknowledgement of a prime letdown spot for the Rebels, whose shaky defense will play its first road game of the season. Trinidad Chambliss may not be in position to bail out his team for the third time this month.
Utah (-8) over IOWA STATE
Coming off an 11-win season, the Utes — who averaged 38 points per game last season — remain a wrecking ball with senior Devon Dampier, leading the Big 12 contender to 142 points in their first three games. When Utah’s eighth-ranked run defense takes control, the Cyclones will be forced to turn to a quarterback (Jaylen Raynor) who is 0-4 against power conference teams — with one touchdown, four interceptions and a 52.4 completion percentage — and ranks last in the Big 12 in passing yards.
Iowa (+5.5) over MICHIGAN
Bryce Underwood’s first game against one of the nation’s elite defensive programs won’t be pretty, setting the stage for the underwhelming sophomore to feel the heat from 100,000 or so of his own fans. Iowa — which has allowed a total of 13 points in three games — is 5-0-1 against the spread in its past six road games.
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
- Check out the best sports betting sites and apps
Wisconsin (+10) over PENN STATE
One of the nation’s softest schedules has made the Nittany Lions a playoff contender. But Matt Campbell — who finished just two of his 10 seasons at Iowa State with a ranked team — still has much to prove with an untested squad, facing its first power conference opponent.
MIAMI (-41.5) over Central Michigan
Darian Mensah will do whatever he wants, entering with the highest completion percentage (89.9) and second-most passing touchdowns (11) in the nation. Expect no mercy after the Hurricanes’ recent 77-7 win over Florida A&M.
ALABAMA (-12) over South Carolina
The Gamecocks have nearly upset the Crimson Tide in back-to-back years, but Alabama defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has never let LaNorris Sellers run wild. The Tide’s issues — being held under 30 points in both meetings — have been solved by the arrival of Keelon Russell, who has led the Tide to at least 45 points in each of his first three starts and looks more confident every week.
Texas A&M (+8.5) over LSU
I wouldn’t trust Sam Leavitt or Marcel Reed to throw me a towel, but the latter has already shown he won’t be affected by a trip to Death Valley, where the Aggies quarterback had four total touchdowns and 108 rushing yards in a 49-25 win last season. The Tigers might get revenge — in what likely amounts to a playoff elimination game for both sides — but the line is incredibly inflated in a matchup of equally talented teams.
Missouri (+6) over MISSISSIPPI STATE
Kamario Taylor has been so good that he probably won’t stay in Starkville next season, but a three-point line jump is an overreaction to the emergence of the Bulldogs quarterback (and Missouri sleepwalking through a win against Troy). Austin Simmons — who played ahead of Trinidad Chambliss before getting injured last year — could just as easily be the quarterback being praised after this meeting against No. 78 pass defense.
Best bets: Utah, Iowa, Texas A&M.
Season: 24-21 (6-3 best bets)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Howie Kussoy has long been the New York Post’s main handicapper in college basketball (since 2011) and college football (since 2013).
