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WASHINGTON — The raging trade war between the US and Canada is hitting home in states hosting some of the 2026 cycle’s most competitive Senate contests, according to an analysis obtained by The Post.
Iowa, Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Texas executed a combined $188 billion in commerce with Canada — more than a quarter of the $674 billion in annual trade between the two countries — over the 12 months ending in June 2026, according to the Advancing American Freedom Foundation, a conservative group founded by former Vice President Mike Pence.
In addition, AAF found that Iowa (29%), Maine (62%), Michigan (29%), Minnesota (30%), Ohio (23%) and New Hampshire (16%) relied on Canada for a double-digit percentage of their annual trade in goods over the same period.
Earlier this month, the Canadian government slapped retaliatory tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on more than $20 billion worth of American goods, including steel, aluminum, wool, lumber, milk, T-shirts and air conditioners. Trump responded by barring Canadian products from federal contracts.
On Aug. 22, the US had imposed 50% duties on an estimated $28 billion of Canadian goods — including beer, cheese, and electronics.
“A trade war with Canada will negatively impact many states, especially those heavily engaging in trade with Canada, including energy- and mineral-rich states, many heavy-industry dependent states, and our agricultural heartlands,” said AAF, which has distributed the analysis to lawmakers on Capitol Hill.
Republicans are defending Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas and trying to flip Minnesota and New Hampshire.
Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), has sought to distance herself from the White House’s tariff regime.
“The on-again/off-again trade talks between the US and Canada lead to higher costs, risk, and uncertainty for Maine businesses,” she complained last month. “If the administration proceeds with these tariffs, they will increase costs for Maine families.”
Democrats need to flip a net of four seats to retake control of the Senate after two years in the minority.
