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The San Diego Padres scratched and clawed their way to a win in Game 3 over the Milwaukee Brewers, extending the series and their series to Game 4 of the NLDS on Wednesday night.
Game 3 was filled with heroic performances, none more notable than Michael King closing out the game in the absence of Mason Miller, who was not available due to the birth of his child.
It was the type of win that will leave plenty to ponder whether momentum is now on the side of San Diego, but the old adage dictates that “momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.”
That’s not good news for the Padres.
Brewers vs. Padres Game 4 prediction, odds
When you’re facing elimination, it’s all about survival. San Diego accomplished that goal in Game 3, but they needed a lot of arms to get them over the finish line.
It’s more likely than not that they’ll need a similar strategy in Game 4.
Walker Buehler will take the mound for the Padres, and that doesn’t mean what it used to for opposing lineups. When Buehler burst onto the scene in 2018, he looked like a surefire bet to grow into an ace.
He became one, but then was slowed down by elbow issues and needed Tommy John Surgery that cost him a chunk of the 2022 campaign and all of 2023.
He hasn’t been the same pitcher since.
Buehler’s velocity is down considerably from where it was during his salad days, and the 32-year-old just doesn’t miss many bats anymore.
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He’s reinvented himself somewhat effectively as a back-end-of-the-rotation starter that can induce groundballs, but that just won’t cut it in a do-or-die scenario against Milwaukee’s relentless offense.
San Diego’s bullpen won’t be too taxed since they had a day off on Monday, but they’ve been called into action quite a bit in this series, which has given Milwaukee plenty of looks at the best arms at Craig Stammen’s disposal.
The bookmakers are pricing this as a coin flip, but I think that the market is being impacted by the “momentum” that San Diego built in Game 3. That is allowing us to get the better team at a discount.
The Play: Brewers moneyline (-107, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
