The scolds on the Left want you to believe that the midterm elections are hopeless for the GOP, so voters should stay home.
Of course, the president’s party reliably loses seats during midterms. This includes 19 of 21 elections in the House and 16 of 21 elections in the Senate since 1938. Presidential job approval, inflation, war, and other challenges typically fuel voter discontent against the party holding the White House.
So the GOP’s goose is cooked this year, right? Not so fast. The GOP has many advantages this year, starting with President Trump’s political power, whose enduring favorability with the GOP base is legendary.
Thus, here are six reasons the GOP will win the midterms in November.
The Trump rally turnout machine
The Trump rally revival we are witnessing this fall is doing more to deliver a GOP victory than any other factor. Massive crowds and huge media coverage help, but the difference is the Get Out The Vote organizational impact the President motivates. Local, county, and state party voter turnout organizing goes into overdrive wherever President Trump appears. And he may exceed 30 rallies in barely six weeks.
Playing defense
The media have noted that President Trump and Vice President JD Vance are traveling to mostly GOP states and districts. Exactly. Midterms are won by firing up the base and defending every inch of ground we hold. The mission is simple: protect what we have first and foremost and then seek selective pick-ups. As legendary Alabama football coach Paul “Bear” Bryant once said, “Offense wins games. Defense wins championships.”
Polling malpractice
CNN data analyst Harry Enten pointed out that September polls underestimated Republican performance by five to nine points in several key states in both the 2018 midterms and the 2024 presidential election. In other words, polls showing Democrats with a 9-point lead today could mean the 2026 midterms are a dead heat. Last week, Enten revealed that if polls underestimate Republicans by only three percentage points this year, the GOP will win in both the House and the Senate.
The redistricting war
Republicans gained roughly four to six House seats through mid-decade redistricting. They benefited from holding more state party trifectas and from Supreme Court rulings that eased decades of stringent Voting Rights Act restrictions. These factors led to new district maps in several states, giving the GOP a net gain of multiple seats. Advantage GOP.
The money game
Republican Party committees enjoy a roughly $100 million advantage over their Democratic counterparts, largely thanks to President Trump’s massive appeal. Then there’s the GOP super PAC advantage, estimated at around half a billion dollars. Think MAGA, Inc.’s $400 million treasure chest and Elon Musk’s $250 million rescue fund, just counting two of the big ones.
Bad candidates
Look at candidates such as James Talarico and Abdul El Sayed to see not only how Democrats picked radical leftists in their primaries, turning off mainstream voters, but also incompetents for candidates. Missing inexplicably from the campaign trail for almost two weeks? Ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and silent on the greater threat, Iran or Israel? Alternatively, the GOP has steady candidates delivering in the home stretch, such as John Sununu in New Hampshire and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota for potential Senate pick-ups, and incumbent, ascendant Rep. Mike Lawler in New York, among others.
The Democrats are trusting that presidential disapproval, the Iran war, and the price of gas will deliver them to victory. But once again they’re denying the power of common-sense policies such as free market populism over socialism; a safe border providing lower crime, drug deaths, and rents; historically low poverty; historically high job participation and tax returns for American workers; a manufacturing renaissance; and a core conviction that the best is yet to come.
Even NPR says that “the Democrats’ brand remains deeply unpopular,” and “national Democratic leaders ‘have consistently been overly optimistic’ as they look to expand the midterm map.”
Considering how President Trump can rally the base just when we need it the most, and several other critical factors, the wilderness could very well await the Democrats yet again for the next two years. To close the deal, it will require delivering record base turnout up until the bitter end of this election.
Mark it down: Trump and the GOP for the win.
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Mark Serrano is the president and founder of ProActive Strategies and a former Trump for President senior advisor.
