Exit polls give Karen Bass edge over Nithya Raman as younger voters threaten to shake up LA mayor’s race

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Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass held a 12-point lead over challenger Nithya Raman in two recent exit polls — but a surge in younger voters could threaten the incumbent’s advantage as the mayoral showdown heads toward its conclusion.

Polls obtained by the California Post conducted on Oct. 22 and Nov. 2 showed Bass leading Raman 56% to 44%, even as the makeup of the electorate shifted significantly between the two dates.

Political consultant Michael Trujillo, who conducted the polls, told The Post the race has become a battle over two distinct voting blocs — with Bass dominating among voters over 50 and Raman drawing her strongest support from younger voters.

About an hour after the polls closed in LA, Bass held a razor-thin lead of 50.9% to Raman’s 49.1% with 48% of the vote tallied, according to the Associated Press.

“It’s like two sumo wrestlers fighting for market share,” Trujillo said, describing the candidates’ competing efforts to maximize turnout among their respective age groups.

Bass strengthened her support among black, Republican and older respondents from Oct. 22 to Nov. 2, while Raman continued to draw strong backing from younger voters, a critical bloc that could ultimately decide the race.

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Among black respondents, Bass’s support climbed from 71% to 78%, while her backing among Republicans jumped from 65% to 77%.

Her support among voters over 50 also surged nine points between the two dates, from 65% to 74%.

But Raman still has a potential path to victory with younger voters.

The share of respondents under 50 jumped from 31% in the October survey to 40% in November.

Raman maintained a nine-point advantage among Latino respondents, slipping slightly from 10 points in October. Democratic respondents remained evenly divided.

The surveys included 1,966 respondents on Oct. 22 and 1,602 on Nov. 2, drawn from voter records identifying people who had already cast ballots.

Both were conducted exclusively through English-language text messages, potentially excluding voters who do not speak English or could not be reached by text.

But the picture changes dramatically when votes after the November exit poll are factored in, projecting Raman leading with 51.5% to Bass’s 48.5%.

Election experts told The Post that Bass would be in a stronger position if she opens with a double-digit lead when the first ballots are counted Tuesday night.

A narrower margin, however, could leave the incumbent vulnerable to a late Raman comeback as additional votes are tallied.

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