Gavin Newsom sees dramatic shift in presidential odds after midterm election

California Gov. Gavin Newsom‘s hopes of making it to the White House may be taking a hit after the midterm elections, with his odds of winning the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination plunging to an all-time low on prediction markets.

Newsom’s chances briefly sank to just 7%, according to the latest market activity, marking a new low for the California Democrat as political betting shifts toward other potential contenders.

On the prediction market, Newsom was listed at 11% in the latest snapshot, with more than $28.3 million in trading volume tied to his 2028 presidential prospects.

That put him behind Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia, who topped the field at 27%, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was sitting at 17%.

The market also had former Vice President Kamala Harris at 6% and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 5%. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro was also listed at 5%.

The broader 2028 presidential market has attracted more than $1.3 billion in trading volume, underscoring the enormous interest in the race despite the election still being two years away.

Newsom has been widely viewed as a potential Democratic presidential contender after building a national profile through his clashes with President Trump and his efforts to position himself as a leading voice of the party.

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But the latest market movement suggests traders are increasingly looking elsewhere when wagering on who could emerge as the Democrats’ next presidential nominee.

Prediction market odds reflect traders’ expectations and can shift sharply with political developments. They are not scientific polling or a definitive measure of a candidate’s chances.