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The criteria for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year is usually pretty cut and dry.
On the obvious front, voters lean toward high draft pedigree, while sacks, forced fumbles, and high solo tackle counts make the most noise on ballots.
Arvell Reese, drafted fifth overall by the Giants, leads the oddsboard as the even-money favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook to earn the hardware heading into Week 10. The 6-foot-4 rangy off-ball linebacker from Ohio State’s price surged after a sensational performance against the Eagles on Sunday, recording 12 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble in Big Blue’s ugly 19-11 win over Philadelphia.
Reese is second in the NFL in solo tackles and leads the Giants roster in total tackles by a margin of 18.
He opened with the third-longest odds to win at +850, so his journey to this point is worth applauding. And although the Giants have leaped into first place of the NFC East, winning doesn’t carry all that much weight.
A notable trend in the award’s recent history is voters’ preference for pass rushers.
Reese’s New York counterpart, Jets edge rusher David Bailey, doesn’t trail far behind him at a price of +250. The No. 2 overall pick from Texas Tech opened as the +500 DROY favorite, and has recorded 7.5 sacks through eight games, leading both the Jets and all rookies while tied for fourth-most in the league.
2026 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year odds
| Player | DROY Odds |
|---|---|
| Arvell Reese | +100 |
| David Bailey | +250 |
| Jacob Rodriguez | +800 |
| Sonny Styles | +800 |
| Gabe Jacas | 15/1 |
| Dillon Thieneman | 20/1 |
Six of the last 10 winners have racked up at least seven sacks, which are the clearest and easiest-to-quantify “splash” plays on defense.
That’s perhaps why only three cornerbacks have won this century, and while the award was once dominated by tackle-heavy linebackers like Reese, it has shifted toward pass rushers. Shaq Leonard is the lone off-ball linebacker to win in the past decade, while a safety hasn’t claimed the honor since 1990.
There’s no doubt the Jets are adding another embarrassing installment to their franchise history this year, and Sunday’s 35-12 loss to the Chiefs underscored more lack of discipline and operational confusion. What it didn’t tarnish was Bailey’s effort; he forced two fumbles, tying 49ers superstar Fred Warner with the most overall at five.
In fact, in addition to sacks and forced fumbles, Bailey leads all rookies in quarterback pressures (31) and tackles for loss (10).
Reese has been a Swiss Army knife for the Giants, excelling in multiple roles while occasionally rushing the passer on blitz packages. But his nine quarterback pressures, 4.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss pale in comparison to Bailey’s totals.
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Bailey has the most sacks by a first-round pick in his first eight games since Hall of Famer Julius Peppers in 2002, who also won the award that year. He’s on pace to finish his rookie campaign with 16 sacks, which would crush Hugh Douglas’ 1995 franchise record of 10.
Even if Reese may be the trendier name right after the Giants exorcised their demons in Philadelphia, don’t be too allured by the team narratives: follow the sack upside — and market value — on Bailey while you still can.
THE PLAY: David Bailey to Win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+250, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
