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Post sports gambling editor/producer and digital sports editor Matt Ehalt is back for his third season in the NFL Bettor’s Guide.
Detroit Lions (-3) over New England Patriots in Munich, Germany
The Patriots are looking more and more like a team that truly benefited from a weak schedule and a Bo Nix injury during their Super Bowl run last year.
Following last year’s 14-3 campaign, New England is just 5-4 and at risk of missing the playoffs after being destroyed at home by Green Bay last week.
There’s not a lot to like about the Patriots right now beyond quarterback Drake Maye.
Maye is playing quite well, but his receiving crew is dealing with injuries, and it’s uncertain if star A.J. Brown will be back for this game at this juncture.
Running back Rhamondre Stevenson seems a lock to miss the game, and TreVeyon Henderson has already been ruled out, leaving third-stringer Corey Kiner to start.
(Editor’s note: Both Brown and Stevenson were listed as questionable following the publication of this article in the Friday, Nov. 13, edition of The Post)
Those offensive concerns loom large since Detroit entered Week 10 ranked third with 27 sacks and the Lions may not have to worry too much about New England’s rushing attack in this contest.
Detroit’s defense also has surprisingly rebounded in recent weeks and no longer appears to be a liability.
After averaging 31.8 points allowed per game through the first four weeks, the Lions have averaged just 15.5 points allowed per game during this four-game win streak.
That includes limiting the Packers, who just hung 45 on the Patriots, to just 17 points in Week 7.
For New England to pull the upset, it will need a much better effort from its secondary in this game after being destroyed by Christian Watson and Matthew Golden in Week 9.
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Detroit’s Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams are different profiles of receivers than Green Bay’s pair, but they can be just as effective, and Jahmyr Gibbs should find space underneath if New England has to provide extra attention to the pass catchers.
Back the surging Lions to win by at least a field goal against a reeling Patriots squad with too many issues to overcome on a neutral field.
2026 record: 5-4
Last week: Broncos (W)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Matt Ehalt has been picking against the spread since his childhood days when he entered his father’s newspaper pool and even took the top prize on more than one occasion. He specializes in NFL wagers and is quite successful with NCAA brackets.
