Matthew Stafford says he trusts his receivers. Rams numbers say otherwise

Matthew Stafford says he has a ton of trust in the Rams’ inexperienced receivers.

I call bulls–t.

Not because Stafford is lying or because he doesn’t genuinely believe in Konata Mumpfield, Tutu Atwell and rookie CJ Daniels. He’s too good a teammate and too respected a leader to publicly throw those guys under the bus.

But there’s a difference between believing in somebody and trusting them with the football when the game is on the line.

And Stafford’s actions this season have spoken considerably louder than his words.

“Obviously, there’s not as many snaps that I have with those guys out there that are going to be playing than maybe Puka [Nacua] and Davante [Adams] that I’ve accrued over the years,” Stafford said Wednesday. “But I still throw to those guys every single day in practice and have a ton of trust in what they can do.”

That’s a wonderful sentiment from the reigning NFL MVP, but there’s just one problem: If Stafford trusts them so much, why doesn’t he throw them the football?

Through nine games, Stafford has distributed 337 charted targets. Mumpfield, Atwell and Daniels have combined for 36 of them. That’s 10.7%.

Meanwhile, Nacua has commanded 93 targets, or 27.6% of the team’s total, despite missing two games. Adams has another 49, while running back Kyren Williams has 46.

Nacua accounted for about 43% of the Rams’ targets over his last three appearances, according to StatChasers.

That’s what trust looks like.

And nowhere was the difference more glaring than last Sunday’s 20-13 victory over the Commanders.

Nacua caught 14 passes for 150 yards and a touchdown on 19 targets. Mumpfield and Atwell combined for four receptions and 36 yards on seven targets.

On one crucial third down, Atwell dropped a pass. Mumpfield also appeared to have route miscommunications with Stafford that contributed to missed opportunities.

And in a game of inches, where the difference between winning and losing often comes down to a razor’s edge, those mistakes matter.

In fairness, Nacua occasionally runs the wrong route and drops passes. Adams does, too. Stafford doesn’t suddenly stop throwing their way because of one mistake.

That’s because they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt and the younger receivers haven’t.

Trust isn’t something you can manufacture before a revenge game with your playoff hopes on the line. It’s earned over time.

I’ve watched Stafford bypass open receivers this season, particularly when Mumpfield or Atwell appeared available, only to hold the football longer, throw it away or settle for another option.

Granted, not every one of those decisions proves distrust. Quarterbacks work through progressions, and what I can see perched atop my bird’s-eye view in the press box isn’t always what the quarterback sees down on the field.

But through nine games, the pattern raises a legitimate question about how comfortable Stafford really is throwing to his backup receivers.

Rams offensive coordinator Nate Scheelhaase offered an interesting explanation Thursday when asked directly how Stafford develops trust in receivers who rarely get the football.

“Trust doesn’t just show up on a Sunday. Trust really doesn’t show up on a Thursday practice, either,” Scheelhaase said. “There’s been a lot of reps over the course of the year that those guys have built up trust.”

Scheelhaase acknowledged that when Nacua and Adams are healthy, the Rams deliberately design their offense around getting them the football. But that doesn’t necessarily mean the other receivers aren’t capable of producing.

“Most times in this league, circumstances are what create opportunity,” Scheelhaase said.

Well, in that case, new circumstances will arrive this Sunday, and they aren’t particularly pretty.

Nacua is sidelined with a knee injury. Adams is recovering from a ruptured hamstring. Tight end Terrance Ferguson is unavailable, and Jordan Whittington is on injured reserve.

If Stafford has been building all this trust behind the scenes, Sunday would be a good time to start showing it.

Mumpfield, who will likely be WR1 on Sunday, knows there’s still a lot of work to be done to develop that trust.

“I’m just trying to make sure we’re on the same page and I’m understanding what he’s seeing,” Mumpfield said.

Daniels, who hasn’t received a target all season, has been equally patient.

“No, I’m just ready,” the rookie said when asked whether he was anxious to prove himself.

Stafford praised Daniels’ work in practice, saying he’s been showing up in a big way against the Rams’ defense.

That sounds great. Now let’s see if you throw him the football.

Sean McVay acknowledged that the Rams are considering different personnel packages, potentially leaning more heavily on Williams and Blake Corum.

That would be understandable. Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen also provide familiar alternatives at tight end for Stafford.

But the Rams cannot abandon their wide receivers entirely and expect to maintain a dangerous passing attack. Especially against their former offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur.

Stafford insisted Wednesday that he has no hesitation throwing to his inexperienced teammates.

“It’s going out there, trusting your teammates, cutting it loose,” Stafford said. “We know what these plays are supposed to look like when executed properly. Let’s go do it.”

Saying it and doing it are two different things. Will he trust the receivers he’s spent the week publicly endorsing or will he stick to the targets he’s more familiar with?

Either way, we’ll find out Sunday when we see who he throws the ball to on third-and-7 with the game hanging in the balance. 

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