See more of our coverage in your search results.
Josh Allen is among a small group of NFL players who affect point spreads in a major way.
He’s amid another MVP campaign, currently sitting only behind Joe Burrow with a price of +275 as we head into Week 10, when the Bills will lay siege to MetLife Stadium against the Jets.
When Allen was hampered by an elite Minnesota defense on Monday, James Cook made up for it with the run game as Buffalo prevailed 23-6 and improved to 7-1.
They’re the No. 1 power rank on most people’s lists right now, and Sunday they are getting 7.5 points on their plebeian New York state rivals.
Jets vs. Bills prediction, best bet
Gang Green is reeling from another second-half collapse, losing 35-12 to the Chiefs because of an abandoned run game, red-zone impotence and having no answer for Kenneth Walker III.
Those issues are unlikely to be solved against Allen given head coach Aaron Glenn’s tenuous grasp on game management and play-calling.
At the same time, the brand identities are still having too much of an influence on this game’s line.
The Jets’ three-game losing skid and 2-7 record would imply league-low metrics, but they actually rank 13th in net yards per play (+0.2), 10th in offensive success rate and 19th in EPA per play.
Their defense also has some redeeming qualities, ranking ninth in yards allowed per play (5.58), fifth in tackle efficiency (93.36 percent) and fifth in fewest missed tackles (6.64 percent). They owe a chunk of that to David Bailey’s campaign for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
If your name isn’t Carson Wentz, Buffalo’s defense actually does present opportunities — even for a Jets offense that has struggled to finish drives.
The Bills rank 22nd in defensive DVOA and 30th in both tackle efficiency and missed tackle rate, while allowing 29 or more points in five of their eight games.
Their second-half pass defense has been particularly vulnerable, surrendering a league-high 143.3 passing yards per game after halftime, with 10 of their 15 passing touchdowns allowed coming in the final two quarters.
Betting on the NFL?
- Read our expert guide on how to bet on the NFL
- Check out the best NFL betting sites
- Get the BetMGM Bonus Code
That could prove significant for Geno Smith, who has thrown 12 touchdowns against just three interceptions despite being sacked 28 times. Smith had a rough day against the Chiefs, though he remains on pace to pass Joe Namath’s franchise passing record of 4,007 yards.
In other news, Breece Hall’s return from a five-game absence provided a boost to the backfield, with the running back producing 87 yards from scrimmage.
Buffalo, meanwhile, faces a short turnaround after running 79 offensive plays and controlling possession for 42:32 in Monday’s physical victory over Minnesota.
Allen historically dominates the Jets, having covered in five straight meetings.
Still, the gap between these teams may not be as substantial as what appears to the eye.
THE PLAY: Jets +7.5 (-107, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
