Former President Donald Trump has reclaimed a narrow lead over Kamala Harris in Polymarket’s 2024 presidential election forecast, marking a sharp turnaround following her surprise appearance the Democratic National Convention in Chicago Monday.
The Nate Silver-backed prediction market and betting platform is now giving Trump a two-point edge over the Vice President, 50% to Harris’ 48%.
Trump led Harris in the forecast by as much as 10% when she clinched the party’s nomination for president Aug. 5.
Harris quickly narrowed the gap, after her campaign got a boost of momentum, taking the lead in the forecast for the first time on Aug. 8, when the odds favored her over Trump by a margin of 50% to 48%.
The California Democrat’s lead steadily widened, peaking at 54% to 44% a week later on Aug. 15 before quickly sliding back to a near even split, where the rivals have remained until her unannounced appearance at the DNC paying tribute to President Biden Monday night.
The forecast’s odds are evenly split between the candidates among six key swing states. Trump leads in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, all of which Biden carried in 2020. The Republican’s lead in Georgia is the highest of the three, where he tops Harris 59% to 41%.
Harris is the odds-on favorite in the Rust Belt battlegrounds, notching a lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, all states Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Harris leads in the Great Lake State by nearly 30 points, 64% to 36%.
