The PGA Tour heads to Colorado this week for the BMW Championship at Castle Pines Golf Club, a course that hasn’t held a PGA event since 2006.
Checking in at 8,130 yards, Castle Pines will be the longest course in PGA Tour history.
However, because the course sits at 6,400 feet in elevation, the ball should travel about 10 percent farther than usual.
We don’t know exactly how the course is going to play, but we should still take a look at the specifics.
The course features narrow fairways (26-30 yards wide) and thick rough (four inches).
Golfers will see quite the mix of tee shots with elevation changes, doglegs and blind shots required.
The greens are on the smaller side (5,600 square feet) and feature a mix of bentgrass and poa annua.
They are expected to be around 13 on the stimpmeter, which is faster than most courses on tour.
Given that Scottie Scheffler (+333) and Xander Schauffele (+600) are priced short in the betting market, I’m hoping the volatility with a new course can lead to a winner down the board a bit.
I’ll likely bet on Scheffler or Schauffele next week at the Tour Championship, but I’m happy to fade them this week.
Here are my best bets for the BMW Championship and where to find the most favorable odds:
Patrick Cantlay (18/1, FanDuel)
Cantlay was on the betting card last week and while he didn’t win, I was still encouraged by his final three rounds.
After opening with a 72, he posted 67-66-66 to sneak into the top 15.
For whatever reason, he tends to play his best golf in the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
He won two events in 2021 (including the Tour Championship), the BMW Championship in 2022 and was runner-up at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last year.
He has gained 3.9, 2.4 and 7.4 strokes ball striking in his last three starts stateside, so his game is clearly trending in the right direction.
He’s long had good putting splits on both bentgrass and poa annua, so he should have a good week with the putter.
Wyndham Clark (28/1, FanDuel)
Having finished T12 or better in four of his last five events, Clark is going to be a popular bet this week.
He’s from Colorado, so he has plenty of experience playing at 6,400 feet.
While I would like to see slightly better ball-striking numbers over the last few months, he did gain 3.2 strokes on that front last week.
He seems to have a knack for big events, as he picked up his first win at the Wells Fargo Championship, his second win at the U.S. Open and his third victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach.
I see no reason why he can’t add another big-time trophy to his collection.
Tony Finau (35/1, bet365)
Much like Clark, Finau grew up playing golf at high elevations.
He’s from Utah, so he won’t have to make nearly as many adjustments regarding yardage as most in the field.
Or, at the very least, he’ll feel more comfortable making those adjustments.
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More importantly, he’s one of the best iron players in the field.
He has gained at least 2.8 strokes on approach in each of his last seven starts on U.S. soil.
He has plenty of distance off the tee, is underrated around greens, and he has gained strokes putting in four of his last five events.
He also has a good track record in the playoffs, winning The Northern Trust in 2021.
