The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 on Saturday night.
It’s the penultimate race in the regular season and likely the final chance for many drivers outside the cutline to win their way into the playoffs. The drafting characteristics of Daytona make it a true wild card.
You won’t see any favorites on my betting card, as Daytona is extremely unpredictable.
The sportsbooks have adjusted, as there are no drivers with odds shorter than 10/1. Joey Logano (11/1) is the favorite at FanDuel.
We’ll likely see a chaotic race at Daytona with the potential for a surprise winner.
Noah Gragson top-10 finish (+240, bet365)
A surprising start to the season saw Gragson emerge as a potential playoff driver. He faded over the summer but is one to watch Saturday.
Gragson has a pair of top-10 finishes in four starts at Daytona.
He finished ninth in the Daytona 500, marking his first start in the No. 10 Ford.
Two months later, he was in contention to win at Talladega before finishing third.
Between Daytona and Talladega, Gragson has three top-10 finishes in eight superspeedway starts.
The Fords have shown plenty of speed on the drafting tracks. Gragson should benefit with a potential top-10 finish.
Top Chevy: Kyle Busch (+600, BetMGM)
It’s been a rough season for Busch, who will likely miss the playoffs for the first time since 2012.
Still, he has two races remaining to win, and Daytona could be his best chance.
Busch has been one of the best drivers at superspeedways in the Next-Gen era.
He has one win, two top-five and five top-10 finishes in 10 starts. He’s also led five-plus laps in the last five Daytona races.
Chase Elliott and William Byron are the favorites for top Chevy. They’ve succeeded on superspeedways but also have bad finishes.
Busch will be one of the most desperate drivers in Saturday night’s race.
He should be a top contender and lead the Chevy camp.
Ty Gibbs over Tyler Reddick (+100, bet365)
Reddick is easily the hottest driver in NASCAR.
He has seven straight finishes of sixth or better, including a victory in last week’s race at Michigan.
It’s been impressive to see him take over the points lead, but the recent stretch won’t give him a boost at Daytona.
With superspeedway racing, you’re always looking for value.
This was almost an auto-bet for me, with Gibbs being the underdog in a head-to-head matchup.
Reddick won at Talladega in the spring, but neither has been great at drafting tracks.
It only makes sense to take the underdog in what’ll likely be a coin flip.
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Brad Keselowski to win Group A (+375, bet365)
Now we’re getting into the heavy hitters as Group A features Logano, Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher and Keselowski.
Logano is the favorite, and Keselowski is the biggest underdog.
Hamlin leads all drivers with three Daytona wins, with the other three having one victory.
Over the last five races, Hamlin is the only one without multiple top-10 finishes.
Keselowski leads all drivers with 118 laps led at Daytona in the Next-Gen era.
He pushed Buescher to the win in last year’s summer race.
He was battling Logano for the win in the Daytona 500 before a last-lap crash took them out.
All four drivers have a good chance to compete for the win.
There’s way too much value not to back one of the best superspeedway drivers in Keselowski.
