In the last of a six-part draft preview series, Fantasy Insanity looks into changing draft status for various players. Next week: Fantasy Insanity moves to Saturday.
Change can be good or bad, purposeful or out of your control. However change might come about, you need to be ready to deal with it.
When you kick off your fantasy drafting in July, you can expect changes by the time you reach the cusp of the season, as we are now. You might not always be able to tell what changes are coming, but you better be able to adapt.
Like, with Rashee Rice. At the start of this draft season, his value was surprisingly low. That could be due to a couple of different factors: 1. Perhaps some early projections were based on his 2023 production as a whole — rather than primarily on his second-half surge, as it should be. 2. Many thought he would get suspended for offseason legal issues, and now it looks like if he will be, it likely won’t come this season. 3. Drafters put too much weight on the signing of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who has since been injured.
Now, he has launched up draft boards as fantasy managers realize he is going to be the top wide receiver on one of the league’s best offenses. Instead of sometimes lasting until rounds 7 or 8, now you have to snag him in the fourth, if he lasts that long. And his stock could continue to rise.
The madman will chase him into the late third, but if he climbs higher, that’s when we back off.
Josh Jacobs was on the Ezekiel Elliott Path to Irrelevance last season, with a huge drop-off in efficiency after leading the league in rushing the season before. Then he made the jump from the Raiders to the Packers, who had a more crowded backfield.
He was slipping into the fifth round or later when us freaks were drafting in July. He has been sneaking up a little since, but this past week is going to skyrocket his value well into the third round.
Presumed backup and carry competitor AJ Dillon will miss the season with a neck injury. But wait, Jacobs isn’t out of the woods because there still is third-round rookie MarShawn Lloyd, projected by some to be Jacobs’ biggest competition. Only, now he is dealing with a hamstring injury.
Fantasy Football DVQ Explainer
Hop out of the pool, unpack your vacation suitcase, boot up your laptop and get ready, because fantasy football season is back.
The Fantasy Madman has returned with the latest iteration of his DVQ.
The Draft Value Quotient is a player rating system that assigns one universal number for every player. This value projects the point in the draft at which a player’s projected production will match the estimated draft pick value.
Since there is a wider separation among production at the top, so too is there a wider gap between DVQ values at the top of the rankings.
The player projections takes into account playing time, expected use/touches, coaching tendencies, part performance and injury history. The DVQ measures these projections against a player’s schedule and factors in positional depth and value above replacement.
These ratings are updated regularly.
Lloyd avoided the shackles of the IR or PUP, but hammies can be tricky. So it is unlikely and would be unwise for the Packers to rush him into action, which means Jacobs should get ample volume to start the season.
On the flip side, Kyren Williams has been one of our favorites this draft season — we feel undervalued in the middle of the second round. Then coach Sean McVay revealed Williams will also return punts this season.
Now look, this might be a great strategic decision by McVay to win NFL football games. We can’t say because we haven’t seen Williams return punts. But it isn’t great news for fantasy purposes.
If he is returning punts, chances are that means he is going to lose at least a few reps a game in the backfield. The more wide-open exposure return men face also nudges his injury risk up a tad. It isn’t the end of the world, but it does warrant a slight downgrade.
Then there are the PUPs you just shouldn’t pet. Nick Chubb, Jonathan Brooks and T.J. Hockenson all are on PUP lists, so they will miss at least the first four games.
Here’s the thing: They are being drafted as if they will walk on the field Week 5 and be 100 percent effective. That won’t be the case.
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Whenever they do return, it will take some time to ease back into the offense. And in the case of Hockenson, to gel with a new quarterback, or for Brooks, to get in sync with an NFL offense.
Instead, draft Chuba Hubbard, who will get strong volume until Brooks does make it on the field, and Jerome Ford, who will fill in for Chubb.
Just like you have to shift gears when traffic changes pace, be ready to swerve when you see ADP changes on the fantasy horizon.
