WATERTOWN, Wis.—The Wisconsin Election Commission’s decision to keep Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on the ballot in Wisconsin may have complied with the letter of state law but, the spirit couldn’t have been more partisan.
Mere moments before insisting that RFK Jr. had to stay on the ballot, despite his request to be removed, Democratic Elections Commission Chair Ann Jacobs fought to kick all of the ballot-qualified third parties off the ballot based on her unprecedented reading of state law — and the Democratic National Committee’s.
The purpose, of course, was to remove the Green Party’s Jill Stein from the ballot, whose share of 30,000 votes in 2016 has been blamed for Hillary Clinton’s loss in Wisconsin.
While Stein’s polling in the state in August showed a mere 1% vote capture — still enough to tip the presidential election scales in the Badger State — Kennedy’s polling was a whopping 8% in one statewide poll.
Popular opinion is that Kennedy’s supporters will favor Trump this fall after anti-vax advocates endorsed the former president.
When third-party candidates are added to polling in Wisconsin, Trump usually slides behind Harris by 2 percentage points in what is otherwise a razor-sharp 1% margin.
How the math will play out at the ballot box for Trump in the battleground state is up for debate, but some RFK Jr. supporters shared their voting plans with The Post.
S.M. is a college student in Milwaukee who doesn’t typically vote Democrat but was very impressed with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s “good ideas” and “clear-minded” message.
“Bobby didn’t have a chance,” S.M. told The Post, irritated by what she sees as the hypocrisy of the Democratic Party. ”Harris didn’t win her primary. They just popped Kamala in there. That is not a democracy. It’s a dictatorship.”
The 27-year-old said she has some concerns about Trump but she will likely vote for him.
Dr. Tamika Johnson, 46, an educator from Milwaukee, had planned to vote for Kennedy but changed her mind after RFK Jr. endorsed Trump and ended his own presidential bid.
“I won’t support [RFK] or Trump. I’m choosing to vote for the Libertarian Party,” Dr. Johnson told The Post. “I’m pleased that the real nature and goal of RFK were uncovered. It seems RFK is after a position and is primarily looking out for his own interest, which is why I’m choosing to stop supporting him.”
Ericka, a 38-year-old artist and property investor, plans to vote for Kennedy in November, although her vote is not set in stone in this volatile election year.
“Under no circumstances would I vote for Kamala,” she told The Post. Ericka voted “liberal-Democrat” most of her adult life, until 2016 when the Democratic Party’s treatment of Bernie Sanders made her realize “my values no longer aligned with the Democratic Party.”
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The Watertown, Wis. resident wants to help the “We The People” party reach the 5% threshold of votes to qualify for public funding, and vote on the issues most important to her, including “children’s health, the chronic disease epidemic, free speech and the environment.”
Joe Handrick, an election analyst who keeps close tabs on Wisconsin’s election data, thinks Trump gets a small but potentially significant bump from RFK Jr. supporters in Wisconsin.
Just spit-balling, but if RFK Jr drops out, I would expect 1/2 his current support still votes for him, 1/4 votes for nobody, and of the remaining 1/4 Trump gets 60% and Harris 40%.
Using the current RCP average, if that were to happen it would have the following impact. pic.twitter.com/ZqFVWltBEs
— joe handrick (@joeminocqua) August 22, 2024
“I think it does make a difference,” Handrick told The Post. “If he’s getting four or five percent, how does that get divvied up?”
Handrick estimated with Kennedy on the Wisconsin ballot, half of the environmental lawyer’s supporters will still check the ballot for him rather than support either of the two top party candidates.
Where does that leave things with the other half of RFK Jr.’s supporters?
Handrick gives Trump 60% of Kennedy’s leftover vote compared to Harris’ 40%. With the current polling averages in Wisconsin, that breaks down to Harris’ advantage by 1.4%.
That matches the RealClearPolitics polling average for the second half of August, which puts Harris at +1.4 in the state.
