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Trump’s green wave: How shift on marijuana could put him over the line in three key swing states

trump’s-green-wave:-how-shift-on-marijuana-could-put-him-over-the-line-in-three-key-swing-states
Trump’s green wave: How shift on marijuana could put him over the line in three key swing states

Donald Trump shocked political observers last week when he appeared to change his position on legalizing marijuana.

But, it could become a political jackpot.

New surveys suggest voters in the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania could be swayed by Trump’s “green” opinion on cannabis.

Donald Trump speaking at a campaign rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan on July 20, 2024, his first public appearance after an assassination attempt

Polling shows Americans broadly support marijuana legalization, and little downside for Trump endorsing it. Getty Images

A screenshot of Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post with website and handle details

Trump suggested he would be open to legalization with certain conditions on his Truth social account. truthsocial/@realDonaldTrump

The Ragnar Research Group polling of 1,000 likely voters between Aug. 18 and Aug. 21 shows broad support for cannabis legalization and very little political downside for Trump in embracing it.

Vice President Kamala Harris could be vulnerable. She supports legalization, but the Biden administration has been accused of slow-walking efforts to change how the federal government classifies marijuana.

It’s currently a Schedule I controlled substance — the same as heroin, LSD and ecstasy. Per the Federal Register, the Department of Justice and the Drug Enforcement Administration are slated to hold a hearing in December on a potential move to the lower class of Schedule III.

But that’s after the election, and too late for voters who care about the issue.

Marijuana is legal at the state level in some jurisdictions, but federal law classifies it as a Schedule I drug — which can come with harsher penalties. The Washington Post via Getty Images

A whopping 82% of voters in the three Blue Wall states, including 77% of the so-called “persuadable voters” who will decide the election, oppose the current Schedule I designation for cannabis, which lumps it in with the most dangerous drugs.

But just because these voters object to the current legal framework doesn’t mean that they want the drug to be available without restriction. Nearly 80% of voters, and 73% of those who are persuadable support bans on recreational marijuana consumption for those under the age of 21.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaking about Florida's 6-week abortion ban at Prime Osborn Convention Center, Jacksonville, Florida.

VP Harris has the lead in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Getty Images

For Trump, who now says Americans “can live with marijuana,” his new position on legalization, which was forged in the context of Florida’s Adult Personal Use of Marijuana ballot initiative, can help him break down the Blue Wall.

That’s given how close the races are in those states. Per Ragnar’s polling, Harris leads by 2 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and 1 point in Michigan. (Other polls have Trump up in both states.)

The 3 states have different cannabis laws. Michigan has one of the most open adult use markets in the country, while Pennsylvania has a medical program and Wisconsin has no legal weed at all.

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