It’s beginning to feel like Groundhog Day once the NFL season premiere rolls around as the Kansas City Chiefs are back basking in the prime-time spotlight looking to sustain their dynasty.
The defending Super Bowl LVII Champions were stunned by the Detroit Lions in last year’s Week 1.
It didn’t make any difference come February.
While the Chiefs’ legacy grows a little longer, the targets on the backs of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes grow a bit bigger — naturally, of course.
At the front of the line of the 31 archers aiming for that bull’s-eye are the Baltimore Ravens, who get a chance from the get-go to avenge their 17-10 defeat in the AFC Championship Game.
Kansas City was favored by 4.5 points then.
With a new defensive coordinator and the league’s rushing leader over the last eight seasons, the Ravens now enter Thursday as underdogs by a field goal.
There’s just too much lingering in the air here, so I’m passing on this line and eyeing two player props to wager instead.
Derrick Henry Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-120, FanDuel)
There’s never really been a true bell cow back on the Ravens in the Lamar Jackson era.
Some of John Harbaugh’s best choices have gotten injured. Otherwise, it’s been a platoon.
The offense ran through Jackson’s agile intuition anyway, making him the most threatening quarterback rushing talent since Michael Vick.
With Henry now in the backfield, the offense morphs to a dual-rushing threat while alleviating full-time dependency on Jackson’s legs.
Henry isn’t getting any younger as he begins his ninth season Thursday.
The 30-year-old bruiser saw a big dip in his usage during his last year in Tennessee, dropping from 21.8 carries in 2022 to 16.5.
That’s one attempt higher than where the line is set for his rush attempts prop in his first game in purple and black.
We can expect a hefty dosage of running in early downs after the Ravens questionably abandoned their league-leading rushing offense for the pass in the AFC Championship.
The Chiefs had ranked 24th overall in yards per rushing attempt. Enter Derrick Henry.
Isiah Pacheco anytime touchdown (+100, BetMGM)
If you placed any Chiefs props at all last season, you were probably familiar with betting Pacheco to find pay dirt down the stretch.
The emerging running back and his inimitable pitter-patter stride scored five total touchdowns in the final four weeks of the regular season and one in each playoff game leading up to the Super Bowl.
Pacheco finished his sophomore season as a notable red zone presence: he recorded the seventh-most touches and tied for the sixth-most targets among all running backs from inside the 20-yard line.
In his AFC Championship showing, Pacheco tied his career-high in attempts at 24 against the Ravens.
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A lot remains to be seen with the 32-year-old former linebackers coach Zach Orr stepping up as the new defensive coordinator after the Ravens deployed the No. 1 unit in defensive DVOA.
For one thing, he’s inherited a secondary that allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns and never allowed a quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards in a game.
Mahomes will need No. 10 out of the backfield once the Chiefs tug their way into scoring range.
BetMGM has Pacheco’s anytime-touchdown-scorer prop listed at even-money.
That offers adequate value for one of the more confident bets in this market Thursday night.
