The Packers and Eagles arrived in Brazil on Wednesday night after lengthy flights, primed for the first NFL game ever in South America.
BetMGM lists Philadelphia as a two-point favorite for Friday night’s contest in Sao Paulo, with an Over/Under of 49.
At FanDuel, the spread is Eagles -2.5 with a total of 49.5.
Here’s a breakdown of the matchups on both sides of the ball and my best bet for the game.
When the Packers have the ball
Jordan Love’s breakout to close out last season resulted in a massive contract extension, and it feels as if Green Bay has struck gold once again at the quarterback position.
Over the final 10 weeks, Love ranked third in the NFL in the all-encompassing EPA+CPOE metric (Expected Points Added plus Completion Percentage Over Expected).
I anticipate some regression for the Packers in the red zone, however. According to Sharp Football, they scored a TD on 95% of goal-to-go drives in 2023, the best rate of any team since at least 2000.
Love was the top quarterback in touchdown rate in those situations at 61%, with the league average falling to 33%.
That’s unlikely to be repeatable, and I’m keeping an eye on rookie kicker Brayden Narveson, who made just 78% of his field goal tries in college.
Green Bay has some concerns on the offensive line, particularly on the interior. Josh Myers ranked 25th out of 31 among qualified centers per Pro Football Focus.
Unimpressive part-time player Sean Rhyan will rotate at right guard with rookie Jordan Morgan.
That crew is at a significant disadvantage against a stout Eagles defensive line.
Philadelphia’s defense should be much improved under Vic Fangio.
Linebacker Nakobe Dean is a breakout talent to watch as the green-dot MIKE linebacker.
The secondary will also be bolstered by a healthy Darius Slay and high-upside rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell.
When the Eagles have the ball
I’m bullish on the upside for the Eagles’ new-look offense under Kellen Moore, especially after Brian Johnson left much to be desired as the play-caller last season.
However, it could take some time for the offense to get rolling, especially after the retirement of center Jason Kelce.
Kelce’s departure is paramount for two reasons. First, he called out protections and identified blitzes at the line of scrimmage, a role that usually goes to the quarterback.
Jalen Hurts will take on much more pre-snap responsibility, especially in an up-tempo, motion-heavy offense.
Secondly, Kelce was the lynchpin of the Tush Push, the most unstoppable play in football over the past several seasons.
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I’m bullish on the Packers’ defense improving under Jeff Hafley, who will implement an aggressive 4-3 defense with a single-high safety that fits this group well.
Free-agency addition Xavier McKinney ranked as PFF’s fourth-best safety last year, and his sideline-to-sideline coverage is critical, with rookie Javon Bullard expected to play more of a role closer to the line.
A healthy Jaire Alexander will also be enormous for Green Bay after the Pro Bowl cornerback played in just seven games last year.
Packers vs. Eagles pick
The Packers and Eagles ranked in the bottom 10 in early down success rate allowed over the second half of last season, but I’m buying improvement for both units under new defensive leadership.
We could also see a sluggish start for these teams in unfamiliar territory at elevation.
With red-zone regression looming for Green Bay and the loss of Kelce potentially hurting Philadelphia early in the season, I’m taking the Under as my best bet.
Recommendation: Under 49.5 points (-110, FanDuel).
