Election data savant Nate Silver said over the weekend that Vice President Kamala Harris passed up a “big opportunity” with her choice of running mate, a move which polls indicate could cost the Democrat a crucial swing state.
The FiveThirtyEight founder wrote in his “Silver Bulletin” newsletter Sunday that the 59-year-old “blew one big opportunity to tack to the center with her selection of [Minnesota Gov.] Tim Walz rather than [Pennsylvania Gov.] Josh Shapiro.”
Silver was responding to a New York Times/Siena College poll which showed nearly half (47%) of likely voters considered Harris too liberal, a reflection of her abortive 2020 presidential campaign in which she staked out several far-left positions.
“[Harris] is a more talented politician than she showed in 2019, and it’s shame that her campaign that year was run by people who seemingly thought Elizabeth Warren was a right-winger,” Silver wrote. “I think Walz was a decent enough pick on his own merits, but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed, [Harris] reverted to 2019 mode.”
The potential selection of Shapiro had triggered backlash from far-left Democrats due to his support for Israel. Many critics said the criticism of the Jewish Shapiro was rooted in antisemitism and Silver wrote Sunday “that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro’s favor, if anything.”
In addition to the left-wing attacks, Sen. John Fetterman’s (D-Pa.) team reportedly advised Harris’ camp against tapping Shapiro, decrying him as a political opportunist.
Prior to Harris’ announcement, Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker cut a video suggesting the governor was the running mate pick, seemingly irking some of Harris’ allies.
Those in Harris’ orbit have claimed that she selected Walz as her running mate due to the personal rapport she developed with him.
Shapiro was seen as a potential running mate who could shore up support for Harris in the Keystone State, whose 19 electoral votes are considered vital to determining the outcome of the race.
Silver noted Sunday that the veep “is faring poorly among white voters without college degrees, rural voters, and older voters: the types of voters who are plentiful in Blue Wall states like Pennsylvania.”
As of Tuesday, Silver’s model gave former President Donald Trump, 78, a 65% chance of winning Pennsylvania and a 64.4% chance of winning the election, a new high for the Republican nominee since President Biden ended his bid for re-election July 21.
The Times/Siena poll was released two days before Harris and Trump meet in Philadelphia for their first and only scheduled debate, and Silver suggested the survey results might constitute a wakeup call for the Democrat and her supporters.
“Debates are often judged relative to expectations as much as by the candidates’ actual execution, and if the race is perceived as a toss-up for Harris or even leaning Trump, her performance might be viewed in a more favorable light,” he wrote Sunday.
“And Harris will perhaps be more likely to avoid the counterproductive tendency toward risk aversion that she showed with the Walz pick. She should campaign like she’s two points behind — because if the Times poll is right, she is.”
