Two new swing-state polls present good news for Donald Trump ahead of Tuesday night’s debate with Kamala Harris, and it appears one important group is driving it.
Florida Atlantic University surveys in Georgia and North Carolina show the former president holds marginal leads among likely voters there: 47% to 45% in the Peach State and 48% to 47% in the Tar Heel State.
In each, Trump is ahead with white college graduates, a group that will prove pivotal to winning these battlegrounds in November. He’s ahead 55% to 40% with that cohort in Georgia and 50% to 47% in North Carolina.
Also in Trump’s favor and providing evidence the surge in Harris’ support has ebbed now that it’s after Labor Day and the campaign is in the homestretch: The former president does better with Democrats than the vice president does with Republicans.
In Georgia, Trump takes 9% of Democrats, while Harris has 7% support from Republicans. Both candidates are just below 90% among voters in their own parties.
The difference is even greater in North Carolina: 10% of Democrats back Trump, while just 4% of Republicans support Harris. Trump is the choice of 92% of Republicans; Harris is backed by 89% of Democrats.
These advantages offset Harris’ lead with independent voters in these states — she’s up 48% to 43% among unaligned voters in North Carolina and 44% to 40% in Georgia.
In this context, the few voters without opinions this close to the election will play a significant role.
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“The close distribution of support between the two major party candidates suggests that Georgia and North Carolina remain highly competitive,” said Kevin Wagner, professor of political science and co-director of the university’s PolCom Lab. “Among likely voters, the undecided population, though small, could still play a crucial role in determining the outcome, particularly in a tight race such as this one.”
Just 5% of likely Georgia voters and 3% in North Carolina say they’re undecided, but among independents, it’s 10% in the Peach State and 8% in the Tar Heel State.
FAU polled 567 likely voters from Georgia and 619 from North Carolina. Both surveys were conducted Sept. 5 and 6.
Though FAU’s surveys are solid for Trump, it’s a measure of how dynamic the race is that other polling is going Harris’ way in these same states.
Quinnipiac has the Democrat up, albeit marginally, in North Carolina (49% to 46%) and Georgia (49% to 45%).
“Neither state offers a clear-cut favorite,” opines polling analyst Tim Malloy.
His poll’s numbers deviate from the FAU survey.
Harris, for example, has 99% support among Democrats in the Tar Heel State — but Trump leads with independents.
In Georgia, the candidates are tied with independents, and both maintain strong intraparty support, with 93% of GOP voters behind Trump and 94% with Harris.
