Donald Trump speaks at a rally at the Aero Center Wilmington in Wilmington, North Carolina, on Saturday. (Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images)
By Michael Schwarz September 23, 2024 at 8:27am
Recent history suggests that when we receive state-level polling from establishment pollsters, we should take the results with a gargantuan grain of salt. And that makes these new numbers all the more encouraging.
On Monday, The New York Times announced the results of a poll conducted Sept. 17-21 in the anticipated swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
In short, the Times/Siena College poll showed that former President Donald Trump has gained momentum across the Sun Belt since his Sept. 10 presidential debate against Vice President Kamala Harris and ABC News.
For instance, prior to the debate the same pollster had Harris leading by five points in Arizona. According to the new poll, however, Trump has now surged to a five-point lead in the Grand Canyon State.
Likewise, a pre-debate poll gave Harris a two-point lead in North Carolina. But Trump now leads the Tar Heel State by two points.
Meanwhile, the former president’s four-point lead in Georgia remains unchanged.
This seems like a good time to remind readers of how pollsters performed in the controversial 2020 presidential election.
Establishment pollster Nate Silver of ABC’s FiveThirtyEight compiled a chart of 2020’s most accurate pollsters ranked by average error.
Do you think Trump will win in November?
Last week on the social media platform X, pollster Mark Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports retweeted that chart complete with results from each pollster’s latest national poll, where available.
As you can see in the chart below, the latest available national poll from 2020’s most accurate pollsters — in this case AtlasIntel, Trafalgar Group and Rasmussen Reports — had Trump winning the national popular vote by a margin of two-to-five points.
Meanwhile, 2020’s least-accurate pollsters had Harris winning by comparable margins.
What could possibly explain this??@Peoples_Pundit https://t.co/Zsegwyy1Wl
— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) September 19, 2024
Likewise, in 2020 those inaccurate pollsters missed by huge margins — especially in swing states. In fact, given the size of the apparent errors, one wonders if they did so on purpose.
For instance, the final 2020 RealClearPolling average showed Trump leading now-President Joe Biden by only one point in Ohio. Trump won that state by 7.2 points.
How could all pollsters combined miss the mark by that much?
Something similar occurred in Iowa, Wisconsin, Florida and even Texas.
In short, when all errors tend in one direction, as they did in 2020, the mistakes appear deliberate.
Having seen how establishment pollsters either botched or manipulated their 2020 results, now consider current state polling outside the anticipated swing states.
Last week, the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia, released a poll showing Harris with only a one-point lead in the Old Dominion. Biden won the state by 10 points in 2020.
“If Virginia is close, this election is going to be a landslide for Trump,” political analyst David Chapman posted on Sunday.
If Virginia is close, this election is going to be a landslide for Trump.
— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) September 22, 2024
Meanwhile, a Siena poll conducted after the debate showed Harris with only a 12-point lead in deep-blue New York state. In 2020, Biden won New York by 23 points.
NEW YORK IS IN PLAY, new poll finds.
2024 Election in New York
🟦Harris 52% (+12)
🟥Trump 40%A state Biden won by 23%, New York is becoming increasingly competitive. Harris will likely pull off the worst Democratic performance in the Empire State since 1988.
Siena College |… pic.twitter.com/H19YP5zM1h
— Election Time (@ElectionTime_) September 22, 2024
You read that correctly. Current state polls show Harris running nine-to-eleven points behind Biden in Virginia and New York.
Couple that with the fact that 2020’s most accurate pollsters show Trump leading nationwide, and only one possible conclusion remains.
In short, one simply cannot envision a scenario in which Trump wins the national popular vote, support for Harris drops by double digits in blue states, and yet swing states simultaneously reproduce what officials certified as razor-thin victories in places like Wisconsin and Arizona, where Biden prevailed in 2020 by approximately 20,000 and 10,000 votes, respectively.
Likewise, in 2020 Trump prevailed in North Carolina by slightly more than one percentage point. Is it even possible that he now leads there by only two points when neighboring Virginia has shifted hard right?
Even the Times/Siena establishment pollsters know that Trump holds a commanding lead in the Sun Belt. In fact, they have almost certainly underestimated that lead.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
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