Vice President Kamala Harris, left, sent a fundraising email to her supporters highlighting former President Donald Trump’s lead in the polls for several key swing states. (Jeff Swensen / Getty Images; Mandel Ngan – AFP / Getty Images)
By Michael Schwarz September 29, 2024 at 7:30am
Tell the world that your internal polling looks horrible without telling the world that your internal polling looks horrible.
For reasons that perhaps only they could explain, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign operatives sent out a fundraising email Thursday highlighting recent New York Times/Siena College polls that showed her trailing former President Donald Trump in the projected swing states of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
The Times/Siena released those polls on Monday.
In other words, Harris campaign operatives had three full days to decide whether to send that email. And they did it anyway.
The new polls showed Trump leading by five points in Arizona, four in Georgia and two in North Carolina. In the 2020 election, officials certified a narrow victory for President Joe Biden in Arizona and Georgia. Trump, however, prevailed in North Carolina.
Losing Arizona and Georgia would give Harris almost no margin for error on the 2024 electoral map.
Of course, as the race currently stands, there is no reason to believe that the vice president has any margin for error.
Will Trump win these key swing states?
For one thing, pollsters with the strongest recent record of accuracy have Trump winning the national popular vote. By any credible model, that would translate to an Electoral College landslide.
Furthermore, recent polling showed a virtual tie in Virginia, where Biden won by double digits in 2020. If Virginia has indeed swung toward Trump, then no universe exists in which Harris wins North Carolina.
Polling details aside, however, the real story here involves the Harris campaign’s apparent and amateurish desperation.
In fact, social media users could not believe the fundraising email’s authenticity.
“Is this real?” one user wrote on the social media platform X.
The Harris-Walz campaign sent this email out.
Is this real? 😂 pic.twitter.com/uRAO5l6120
— Defiant World (@DefiantWorld) September 27, 2024
“A new Harris email … not looking good for her folks,” another X user wrote.
A new Harris email… not looking good for her folks pic.twitter.com/AeOexkzyj0
— Kyle Beaudette (@realkbeaudette) September 27, 2024
One conspiracy-minded X user suspected The New York Times of complicity in the fundraising drive. Otherwise, why would they publish the polls?
The Harris campaign sent out this email a day ago. There’s a little voice inside of me that says that the only reason the New York Times published those polls was to create fear in her followers that would drive a fundraising campaign.
On the other hand the NYT has been breaking… pic.twitter.com/76JL2EuKPR
— The Biz Doc (@TomEllsworth) September 27, 2024
Meanwhile, other X users simply marveled at the spectacle. Many added laughing emojis.
Kamala Harris’s campaign sent this email out. 😅 pic.twitter.com/nL9F5tSD9O
— Laura Loomer (@LauraLoomer) September 26, 2024
Kamala Harris’ campaign sent this email out, asking for donations 🤣🤣🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/b6IIiWlzTu
— Sammy 𝕏 (@sammyX39) September 27, 2024
One X user suggested that the polls explained Harris’s Friday visit to the border in Arizona.
“The campaign is falling apart just about a month out from the election,” the user wrote.
If you’re wondering why Kamala Harris is going down to the border in Arizona tomorrow
This is why
Her campaign emails are in disarray
The campaign is falling apart just about a month out from the election pic.twitter.com/DJhYkyJzB4
— Drew Hernandez (@DrewHLive) September 26, 2024
Above all, Harris campaign operatives’ behavior allows us to speculate with reasonably high confidence about their internal polling.
In fact, even before the fundraising email, one X user attributed Harris’s desire for another presidential debate to “worrying” internal polls.
Kamala Harris begs for another debate, and when she doesn’t get one, is forced into doing train wreck interviews.
It’s desperation because her internal polls are worrying. She’s looking for more manufactured hype. Trump is doing the right thing.
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 26, 2024
Regardless of how Harris’s internal polling looks, for psychological reasons alone the decision to send a mass fundraising email that highlighted Trump’s strength in those three crucial swing states constitutes one of the strangest political moves in recent memory.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
Michael Schwarz holds a Ph.D. in History and has taught at multiple colleges and universities. He has published one book and numerous essays on Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and the Early U.S. Republic. He loves dogs, baseball, and freedom. After meandering spiritually through most of early adulthood, he has rediscovered his faith in midlife and is eager to continue learning about it from the great Christian thinkers.
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