The Chiefs are officially in desperation mode as their playoff hopes hang in the balance for the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career.
Their Week 12 date with the Colts at Arrowhead serves as a symbolic clash of the AFC’s old guard and a rising contender.
Some might claim the Colts are pretenders and have rode the mesmeric campaign of Jonathan Taylor to its 8-2 mark.
This game serves as a barometer for how much weight that notion carries.
Either way, the impact of the six-year NFL vet and his 113 yards per game has been ultimately matchup-proof. He’s risen to 7/1 odds to win NFL MVP, which are the third-shortest odds in the market.
Indianapolis isn’t just efficient offensively — they’re the best in football by both EPA/play and DVOA, leading the NFL in ppg (32.1) and yards per play (6.4).
The Chiefs aren’t as stubborn as their surface stats say, ranking 24th overall in defensive rush EPA.
Taylor is averaging 6.0 yard-per-catch and heads into this game rested from a bye week after posting a career-shining stat line: three touchdowns for 286 total yards against Atlanta.
The Chiefs are sitting at 5-5 in part because their defense can’t get off the field. They are No. 23 overall in opponent third-down conversion rate (41.6 percent), which is a troublesome trend against Taylor and the Colts, who likely will go run-heavy to maintain possession and keep Mahomes on the sidelines.
Taylor has cleared 109 yards in six of 10 games this season with the boost of three catches a game for 26 yards.
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The Chiefs haven’t been generous to running backs, ranking within the top-five teams in fewest rushing and receiving yards allowed to them. But sheer volume, efficiency and play design all point to him neutralizing those historical tendencies.
After all, he is on track for over 2,000 total yards and this is a statement opportunity.
The play: Jonathan Taylor Over 109.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
