-
Andre Snellings, ESPNOct 2, 2024, 02:16 PM ET
The analysis for this article proved one thing beyond a shadow of a doubt: Victor Wembanyama is an alien. In the best way possible.
I compile these rankings based upon my season-long projections from the almost 400 potentially rotation players in the NBA for the upcoming season. Category-based fantasy hoops rankings are different than points-based, with less emphasis on pure volume, more benefit to specialized counting categories like blocks, steals and 3-pointers, and more punishment for inefficient shooting from either the field or the line.
The value of a contribution in a given category is going to differ based on the scarcity of the contribution. For example, there are far fewer steals than there are assists, so the weighting of each steal a player averages will contribute more to their category rankings than each assist.
Make sense?
The category with the most volume is points, so each individual point scored counts least toward these rankings. And the category with the least volume is blocked shots, so each blocked shot is worth quite a bit of weight in the rankings.
You’ll see that phenomenon played out in both the Top 150 roto and category rankings, as well as here in the category tiers. It’s easy to see that shot blockers as a whole rank significantly better in the category tiers than in the points-based tiers. And, generally speaking, you’ll notice that defensive specialists or 3-point shooters will fare relatively better and players that generate volume in points, rebounds and/or assists fare relatively worse in category rankings than in points-based.
So, how does this prove Wemby is an alien?
He already projects to strong volume in points and rebounds, and he even dishes out quite a few assists for a big man. But he also shoots with solid-to-good percentages, knocks down his fair share of 3-pointers and has the potential to lead all big men in steals as well. Oh yeah, and it looks like he’s going to lead the league in blocked shots…by a lot…for every season from now until he retires.
Put that all together, and Wemby’s category-based ranking projection is quite literally off the charts. The gap between his projected category score and those of Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic, second and third in the rankings, is as large as the gap between Doncic and the player ranked 38th… who ended up in Tier 4.
So, not only could Wemby get his own tier in these rankings. Wemby could be alone in Tier 1… then Tier 2 would be empty… then Tier 3 would also be empty. Then, in Tier 4, you could finally get Doncic and Jokic and the other best category producers in fantasy hoops.
I told you. Wemby is an absolute alien in the fantasy basketball universe. He could be in for a season of category contributions not seen since “Space Jam.”
The following is my breakdown of players into tiers, by position, based upon my preseason projections. It’s worthwhile for you to see how I break things down, but ultimately you’ll get the most benefit out of taking a few minutes for yourself and breaking down the players into your own tiers based upon your own valuation. You would be shocked how much a little exercise like that can do to prepare you for your draft, and how much this 20-minute exercise could set you apart from the other team managers in your league.
Point guard
The upper tiers are full of more point guards than any other position, with only centers even close. Four point guards reside in Tier 1, with Trae Young‘s strong 3-point shooting in addition to his 30-10 upside potential earning him a spot on the tier along with Doncic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton. LaMelo Ball has Tier 1 upside and looks to return to that level after missing much of the past two seasons with ankle injuries, making him the biggest risk-reward proposition among point guards near the top of the draft. Damian Lillard is another player looking to bounce back this season, with hopes that Year 2 on the Bucks is closer to his usual level. D’Angelo Russell ended up in Tier 4, significantly better than his placement in points-based rankings, in large part because he makes so many 3-pointers. Immanuel Quickley, Darius Garland and Coby White are all young guards with upside in Tier 5. In Tier 7, we find our first rookie in Stephon Castle.
Shooting guard
Donovan Mitchell, with his high volume of 3-pointers and steals, makes the leap to join Anthony Edwards in the highest tier. Jalen Green is a young player that looks poised to make the leap this season, earning him a spot in Tier 2. Derrick White is one-of, if not the best shot-blocking guard in the NBA, which helped boost him up to Tier 3. Tier 4 could just be renamed “From Downtown,” with Klay Thompson joining Buddy Hield, Donte DiVincenzo, Anfernee Simons and Zach LaVine in an all-out 3-point shooting brigade. Despite his tantalizing potential to land among the NBA league leaders in points per game, Cam Thomas slipped to Tier 6 in these rankings because he historically has not contributed much to any category besides scoring. His scoring efficiency, already relatively low for his high-volume of shots, could also suffer this season if opposing defenses choose to key more on him as the primary option.
Small forward
Small forward is another position that is sparse at the top outside of multi-position-eligible players, with Jayson Tatum solo in Tier 1 and Scottie Barnes joining LeBron James in Tier 2. Tier 3 is comprised solely of the two forwards that used to start together for the Clippers, but Paul George has joined the 76ers and will no longer play next to Kawhi Leonard. The fourth tier contains Finals MVP Jaylen Brown, as well as both Mikal and Miles Bridges. Tier 5 contains three young players with similar body types as long combo forwards that can shoot from range, with sophomore Brandon Miller sporting the highest ceiling next to relative NBA veterans Michael Porter Jr. and Franz Wagner. There are some veterans with big names in the later tiers due to their relative lack of defensive categories and 3-point shooting, with Jimmy Butler joining Brandon Ingram in Tier 6 and DeMar DeRozan headlining Tier 7.
The NBA season is almost here. Sign up for ESPN Fantasy Basketball today. Play for free
Power forward
Just like in the points-based tiers, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only player whose default position is power forward in Tier 1. Kevin Durant is also on a solo mission in Tier 2, before Tier 3 gives us two young scorers with bourgeoning games in Paolo Banchero and Lauri Markkanen. New putative Timberwolves big man Julius Randle is joined by two up-and-comers named Jalen in Tier 4: Jalen Johnson and Jalen Williams. Zion Williamson and Pascal Siakam, two highly rated players in points-based leagues, both slid to Tier 5 due to their relative lack of defensive categories and 3-point shooting. On the flip side, players like P.J. Washington, Keegan Murray and Draymond Green in Tier 6… as well as Jabari Smith Jr. in Tier 7… all moved up a tier or two in the category rankings because of their relative strengths in those same defensive and long-distance categories.
Center
The center position is most helped in category rankings compared to points-based, as center is where most shot-blockers and high-efficiency shooters from the field reside. The high-volume scorers at center are all relatively good free throw shooters as well, avoiding the old Shaq phenomenon of high-volume missed free throws making a star player unplayable in category leagues. Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis are below the top tier of Wemby and Jokic, as durability concerns make them risky to take in the first round. Chet Holmgren‘s blocked shots also vaulted him into Tier 2, and Karl-Anthony Towns‘ presumed larger role at his natural center position boosted him to that tier as well. Tiers 3 and 4 are full of shot-blockers, some of whom also shoot the 3-pointer, such as Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brook Lopez, which boosted them up the rankings into similar tiers as star players without those elements in their arsenal, like Alperen Sengun and Nikola Vucevic. There are more rookie centers on this list than any other position due in large part to their expected defensive contributions, with Donovan Clingan in Tier 6 and both Zach Edey and second overall pick Alex Sarr in Tier 8.
