After putting together another stunning rally in the eighth inning of Game 1 of the NLDS, the Mets have an opportunity on Sunday to return home with a 2-0 stranglehold on the series.
Phillies manager Rob Thomson made an interesting decision to start Cristopher Sánchez ahead of Aaron Nola in Game 2.
Sánchez has been fantastic down the stretch and is arguably the superior starter at this point. He also has pitched to an ERA of just 2.21 at Citizens Bank Park, compared to a 5.02 on the road.
Oddsmakers are giving the Phillies a lesser chance of winning Sunday’s matchup as compared to Game 1. They are a -155 favorite after closing Game 1 at -175, while the total stays the same at 7.5.
Mets vs. Phillies Game 2 odds
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | +130 | +1.5 (-160) | o7.5 (-115) |
| Phillies | -155 | -1.5 (+135) | u7.5 (-105) |
Mets vs. Phillies Game 2 prediction
The main argument against the decision to start Sánchez over Nola in this matchup would be the Mets’ superior splits against left-handed pitchers versus righties.
The Mets hit to the fourth-best wRC+ of 118 against southpaws this season, compared to a 105 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Since Aug. 1, they have hit to a wRC+ of 119 against lefties and an OPS of .769. They rank fourth in BB/K ratio in that span and eighth in hard-hit rate at 33.6%.
Sánchez earned the right to this start with his tremendous form down the stretch. In his final eight starts, the native Dominican pitched to an ERA of 2.50 and allowed an xFIP of 3.11. He held a K-BB percentage of 19.2 in that span and allowed an xBA of .235.
Sánchez finished with a 58 percent ground-ball rate this season, the third-highest mark among qualified starters and likely helped him overachieve his xERA.
The Phillies also hit left-handed pitchers drastically better than righties this season, which should work in favor of Luis Severino, who gets the start for the Mets on Sunday. Since July 1, Philadelphia ranks 19th with a wRC+ of 100 against righties.
In his last 48 ⅓ innings, Severino has an ERA of 3.17 and an xFIP of 3.45. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 113 in that span and has struck out 26.7% of batters faced.
Mets vs. Phillies Game 2 pick
Game 1 snuck over its betting total of 7.5 thanks to a flurry of late runs.
Both bullpens grade out very well, and it seems foolish to count on the Phillies, in particular, to replicate Saturday’s collapse with their talented relievers.
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Given the way both starters pitched down the stretch and the quality of relief arms both sides have available, a total of 7.5 looks too high and I see value backing the under at anything better than -120.
Best bet: Under 7.5 total runs (+100, ESPN Bet)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Nicholas Martin handicaps the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in articles to help bettors come to their own conclusions, but is also up 180 units himself on verified picks in a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X @nickm_hockey.
