Readers of this column for the past four weeks, or 31 years, know we don’t take a one-size-fits-all approach to handicapping.
There are always a myriad of angles to consider, from injuries (is one team decimated at a key position?) to weather to travel considerations (is it a short week or third consecutive road game for one of the teams) to current form. We look at them all, then try to choose the one or two that are most relevant to a prediction for any given game.
Which brings us to Sunday’s New York Jets-Minnesota Vikings game in London, which will kick off at 9:30 a.m. ET.
You can get tangled up in all of the contradictory stats all you want. For instance the Vikings defense leads the NFL with 17 sacks but is also last in passing yards allowed per game. Is that a function of the team being ahead, sometimes by large margins, in each game, or are there cracks there?
The Jets defense ranks second in passing yards, third in total yards and fifth in points allowed. But we all remember the 401 yards and 31 points it gave up to the 49ers in the opener. Is everything truly locked down?
Both quarterbacks — Aaron Rodgers and Sam Darnold — have been dealing with knee soreness and will be tested by top pass rushes.
This game, then, comes down to probably the least analytical of all of the handicapping strategies: the situation.
The Jets are coming in off a loss with a 2-2 record and games against the Bills and Steelers (combined 6-2) the next two weeks. There’s heat on head coach Robert Saleh, offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and, yes, even Rodgers, to cut out the penalties, make use of the weapons, put more points on board and come back across the pond with a W.
The Vikings are 4-0, and there’s nothing to knock, with the past three victories coming against the 49ers and Texans at home and at the Packers. The Vikings did have to hold on for a 31-29 victory at Lambeau after jumping out to a 28-0 lead.
We’ve been reminded numerous times this season already that the NFL is a week-to-week league, and that both the good times and the bad times will end. The Saints scored 47 and 44 points in wins then 12 in a loss in Week 3. The Bills averaged 37 ppg in three wins then scored 10 in a loss. An 0-2 start scared the Ravens straight.
When you have both of those dynamics on a collision course, this feels like the way to go:
The pick: Jets +2.5.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (-6) over New York Giants
This one’s about the injuries, and they’re everywhere. Half of Seattle’s defensive starters are listed as questionable. But what will the Giants be able to do about it if Malik Nabers (concussion) is out and Devin Singletary (groin) also sits or is hobbled? Heavy road ’dog is typically a spot I like for Brian Daboll and the Giants, but this sets up as a potential runaway.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+2.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore has the No. 1 yardage offense in the NFL and has been nuclear in wins over the Cowboys and Bills. Cincinnati is still just 1-3 after topping Carolina, so this remains a must-win for a team that finally has both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins healthy for Joe Burrow.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns
Though this one goes against the all-good-things-must-end narrative, the spread seems a small price to pay to get a quarterback (Jayden Daniels), who is completing 82.1 percent of his passes, against an injury-depleted foe. Commanders are averaging 30.6 ppg to the Browns’ 16.5. There’s a great gap between those numbers and this line.
Buffalo Bills (-1) over HOUSTON TEXANS
Except for Nico Collins’ breakout, the Texans’ expected improvement on offense has not exactly happened. Their one top-tier opponent thus far, the Vikings, beat them 34-7. It’s back-to-back road games for Buffalo, but Josh Allen off a blowout loss with a tiny spread? Yes, please!
CHICAGO BEARS (-4) over Carolina Panthers
Figuring the instant jolt Andy Dalton gave the Panthers when he replaced the inept Bryce Young will start to wear off, particularly if WR Diontae Johnson (ankle) is out or compromised. Bears are 2-0 at home by margins that would cover this number, and Caleb Williams should only get more in tune with Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and DJ Moore.
Miami Dolphins (+1) over NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Dolphins are a disaster, but this is the type of number adjustment one would expect if the Patriots were also better than expected. They’re just as bad, if not worse. At least the Dolphins have some high-level weapons Tyler Huntley might be able to unlock with a little more practice time.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-3) over Indianapolis Colts
Jobs (Doug Pederson) and reputations (Trevor Lawrence) are on the line for the 0-4 Jaguars. The only bright spot is this is only their second home game, and the sight of the Colts, against whom they scored 68 points in two games last season, might finally awaken this moribund offense.
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Just another one of those situational angles that has the potential to cause us great agita late Sunday afternoon: Cardinals off blowout loss, Niners off runaway win. Underdogs at +7 or more are actually 5-1 straight up this season (though Niners over Patriots was the exception).
DENVER BRONCOS (-3) over Las Vegas Raiders
The Davante Adams trade saga likely will lead to him sitting out on Sunday in Denver against a team that ranks No. 2 in yards and No. 3 in points allowed. Bo Nix returns home a new man after consecutive road wins.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (+3) over Green Bay Packers
Down 28-0, Jordan Love almost produced a miracle win vs. the Vikings. Maybe he was just getting started, but people are sleeping on the Rams because of the absences of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Still have a suspicion that Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford can surprise as home ’dogs as they did vs. the Niners two weeks ago.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-2.5) over Dallas Cowboys
Let’s add it up. Dallas should be without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, gutting its defense. The Cowboys also rank last in the NFL in rushing yards per game. If that holds, Dak Prescott will have to deal with T.J. Watt. You don’t want to lay too many points with a Steelers team that has scored six touchdowns in four games, but this number seems reasonable.
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Monday
New Orleans Saints (+5.5) over KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Kansas City’s 4-0 record is a little too magical, coming by the length of Isaiah Likely’s toenail in the opener, and with wins over the Bengals and Falcons that could have been losses. Now Rashee Rice is out, joining Isiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown. Derek Carr is 3-14 in his career vs. the Chiefs. This might be the best situation he’s had, though.
Best bets: Steelers, Bills, Broncos
Lock of the week: Steelers (Locks 2-2 in 2024)
Last week: 10-5-1 overall, 1-2 Best Bets
Thursday: Buccaneers.
