The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!
2023-24 finish
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Record: 47-35 (lost to the Cavaliers in the first round)
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Offensive rating: 112.9 (22nd)
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Defensive rating: 110.8 (3rd)
Offseason moves
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Additions: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cory Joseph, Tristan Da Silva
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Subtractions: Markelle Fultz, Joe Ingles, Chuma Okeke
The Big Question: Are Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner the foundational building blocks of a championship contender?
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is one of the best complementary role players in the NBA. He is the type of player a team signs once the powers-that-be have convinced themselves they can actually contend. Ask the Los Angeles Lakers, who won with him in 2020, or the Denver Nuggets, who won with him in 2023.
Caldwell-Pope joins All-Defensive guard Jalen Suggs in one of the best defensive backcourts in the league. Cole Anthony’s instant offense and Gary Harris’ veteran presence round out a talented trove of guards — so talented that the Magic opted not to bring back former No. 1 overall pick Markelle Fultz.
The Magic are just as deep at center, where Wendell Carter Jr., Moe Wagner, Jonathan Isaac and Goga Bitadze collectively provide some combination of shooting, defense and power. Carter might be the best representative of all three, though a healthy Isaac could be the game’s best defensive player per minute.
Jamahl Mosley, last season’s runner-up for Coach of the Year, has his options. None of them will matter — at least so far as this season goes — if Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are not ready to lead them.
Banchero was an All-Star last season at the age of 21. He averaged a 23-7-5 on 46/34/73 shooting splits. He has all the tools to become an elite playmaker from the forward position. He has not harnessed them yet, though few players have ever been so difficult to stop from getting to the rim at such a young age.
He could improve his shooting efficiency across the board, especially on pull-up jumpers, where he shot sub-40% last season (and 32.8% from 3). Imagine the possibilities when defenses do not know whether to guard his drive or his shot. They are downright LeBron-like. He will need to improve his playmaking, too, if he ever wants to be considered one of the game’s elite No. 1 options, but it is all within his reach.
Wagner also appeared bound for an All-Star bid at age 21 — until his jumper failed him last season. No high-volume shooter registered a lower 3-point percentage than Wagner’s 28.1% on 4.6 attempts a game. His confidence was fractured. Even then, Wagner averaged a 20-5-4 on 57.5% true shooting last season.
The development of Banchero and Wagner is tied together. The more respect one commands, the more freedom the other has to operate. And if both must be respected, they will send defenses spinning into rotations, trying to stop the ball and account for Caldwell-Pope, Suggs and other shooters around them.
Defensively, the Magic are set. It is rare for so young a team to perform as well defensively as the Magic did last season. They are big and versatile and played hard for their coach. They were in a seven-game, first-round rock fight with the Cleveland Cavaliers and averaged 91.5 points per game in their four losses. It is the offense that is holding them back, and Banchero and Wagner are the straws that stir that drink.
They combined to average 45.9 points, 15.5 rebounds and 8.4 assists per game in their first playoff series. Any team would take that from a pair of players still on their rookie contracts. But Wagner is due his max extension next season, and Banchero begins his in 2026. Building around them becomes more difficult in the years to come, so Orlando struck now, adding Caldwell-Pope to a mostly re-signed supporting cast.
The Magic have prepared to take a leap, but Banchero and Wagner must make their jumps first.
Best-case scenario
Even a middling offense — if the defense remains the same — would push the Magic’s net rating to 4.7, which would have ranked third in the East last season. A top-10 offense? Then, the Magic might be in line for a top seed. They were one win (or one awful third quarter) from reaching the second round of last season’s playoffs. If Banchero and Wagner can fuel wins, accelerated by Suggs and Carter and Caldwell-Pope and the crew, the conference finals is well within reach, and Orlando arrives ahead of schedule.
If everything falls apart
Wagner cannot shoot. Suddenly, there are more serious questions about whether Wagner can ever be a No. 2 on a championship-caliber team — and whether he will ever meet the value of his $224 million deal. Banchero stagnates, making no meaningful strides as a shooter or playmaker. For all the centers they have, they cannot find one who can man the position as a bona fide Playoff Guy. The defense suffers from a lack of effort, they turn winnable games into losses, and they revert to battling for a play-in berth.
Fantasy spin
The market is too high on Paolo Banchero in category formats. He’s certainly worthy of a second-round pick in points leagues, but Banchero’s high turnover rate, lack of 3s, blocks and middling free-throw percentage dock him significantly in category leagues.
Banchero was the lowest-ranked All-Star in category formats, finishing 159th last season. I’m not saying not to draft him — I’m saying a late-third rounder is a sizable gap from where his actual value lies. However, if we get Playoff Paolo off the rip, it might get very, very interesting.
Make sure to get Jalen Suggs. He’s starting as a point guard, which should boost his assist rate after already making strides as a 3-point threat and lockdown defender. Suggs will outperform his ninth-round ADP, which is currently sliding to pick 100. — Dan Titus
2024-25 schedule
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Season opener: Oct. 23 at Miami
Over/under win total: 47.5
They won 47 games last season and added Caldwell-Pope. Any collective improvement from their young core should catapult them even higher. I think the Magic are ready for the spotlight. Take the over.
