Fantasy football analyst Sal Vetri delivers his keys to victory for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season.
The Pick-up-and-Play of the week is … Jauan Jennings
Deebo Samuel is expected to miss a few weeks for the 49ers. San Francisco is also without Christian McCaffrey and rookie WR Ricky Pearsall, who is unavailable due to a gunshot wound he’s recovering from. George Kittle’s status for Week 3 is now looking iffy as well, having popped up on Thursday’s injury report with a hamstring injury.
This leaves the 49ers with Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings as the only two locks in the passing game. Jennings is one of the best run-blocking receivers in the NFL, but he’s also been a productive player when given opportunities in the passing game.
Jennings played more than 50% of the 49er’s snaps in six games last season. He scored 10+ fantasy points in four of these six contests. You can pick up and play him this week against the Rams’ 24th-ranked secondary according to PFF.
The sketchy spot of the week belongs to … Mike Evans vs. DEN
Evans has had a solid start to his 11th NFL season. Through two games, Evans has turned a 23% target share into eight catches for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He’s primarily worked on the outside, running 70% of his routes out wide according to PFF.
This usage on the outside is important to call out because this week he’ll face Patrick Surtain. Surtain has played 89% of his snaps on the outside through two weeks. So far this season, Surtain has allowed six catches for 70 yards in coverage. He’s been able to shut down both DK Metcalf and George Pickens. This is a sketchy spot for Evans.
An interesting trend: Lions vs. slot receivers
The Lions have been giving it up to opposing slot receivers so far this season. They’ve allowed 22 slot catches for over 250 yards through two weeks, according to PFF. Last week, Chris Godwin caught six of seven slot targets for over 100 yards and a touchdown.
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We can’t draw any conclusions just yet, as it’s only been two weeks against good receivers like Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin, but this is a trend worth monitoring. In Week 3, the Lions play Cardinals’ slot receiver Greg Dortch. I’m not expecting much here from Dortch, but in Week 4 they face Jaxon Smith-Njigba and CeeDee Lamb in Week 5. Those will be key matchups to note.
The best RB spot of the week belongs to … Brian Robinson Jr. vs. CIN
Robinson’s role has been strong to start the season. He’s played 59% of the Commanders’ snaps and earned 74% of the backfield carries. In Week 2, Robinson totaled 136 yards on 18 touches. He broke five tackles in this game and currently ranks top 10 on the season in broken tackles, according to Player Profiler.
These broken tackle stats are important for his matchup this week. Robinson will face the Bengals who have allowed 160 rushing yards per game this season. But more importantly, the Bengals have struggled to tackle, allowing the sixth-most yards after contact this season according to NFL Pro. Despite Washington being a big underdog, expect an efficient game from Robinson.
Chris Godwin is trending up
Godwin is the No. 1 receiver in fantasy football right now. Through two games he’s produced 15 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns. He’s already matched his touchdown total from last season.
We were promised more slot usage out of Godwin this year and we’ve been getting it. Godwin has played 65% of his snaps from the slot this year according to Dwain McFarland. That number was just 32% in 2023. He’s turned this increased slot usage into 10 slot catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns. Godwin leads the NFL in each of these slot categories.
You may be tempted to sell high on him now, and it’s not a terrible idea. But I’d recommend holding onto Godwin unless you can receive a Tier 1 player like Ja’Marr Chase or Saquon Barkley in exchange.
James Cook is trending up
Cook finished as a top-three fantasy back in Week 2 after scoring three touchdowns on Thursday night against the Dolphins. Cook only played 47% of the snaps in this game, but this needs more context. The Bills pulled Cook for the final two drives of the game due to the blowout. If you take out these garbage-time drives, Cook would’ve handled an elite 79% of the backfield carries.
Since play-caller Joe Brady took over in November of 2023, Cook has averaged 19.5 touches and 16.5 fantasy points per game. Both numbers would rank top 10 among all running backs last year. Through two weeks, Cook has produced games of 103 yards and 95 yards on 17 touches per game. He’s trending up and is a top-10 back for the rest of the fantasy season.
Jerome Ford is trending down
In Week 1, Ford commanded 73% of the Browns snaps and 86% of the backfield carries. This led to a strong fantasy day of 15.9 points on 18 touches. Everything was looking good for Ford, including his Week 2 matchup against a Jaguars team that struggled to tackle in their first game.
But Week 2 was the worst-case scenario for Ford. His snaps dropped to 42% and he only saw 26% of the backfield carries. Veteran D’Onta Foreman led the backfield with 14 carries on 38% of the snaps. This was surprising as Foreman saw just one snap in Week 1. However, he suffered a neck injury in training camp and may not have been ready for a larger role to start the season.
The good news for Ford is he still played the most Browns’ RB snaps in Week 2 and averaged over nine yards per carry. He’s a talented back, but if Foreman is going to be this involved moving forward it will be hard to start Ford in fantasy.
Brock Bowers is the new elite fantasy TE
He already looks like one of the best TEs in the league. Bowers was the best TE in college football at the highest level in the SEC the past three years. He was elite at reading defenses and picking up yards after the catch.
Bowers currently leads all fantasy TEs in points, EPA per play and targets. His 25% target share is impressive, especially since he’s competing with Davante Adams for targets. But maybe more impressive is Bowers has had so much success while running only 70% of the team’s routes.
I’m not sure how defenses can stop what he’s doing because Bowers lines up everywhere. Defenses can’t just put their best player on him like a receiver vs. cornerback matchup. Bowers moves off the line of scrimmage and slides into the slot 50% of the time, while also moving to the outside 15% of the time. He’s extremely versatile and as legit as it gets. Bowers is a top-five TE for the rest of the season for me.
The buy low of the week is … Diontae Johnson
I’m back in on Diontae Johnson now that second-year QB Bryce Young was just benched. I firmly believe Young was the main problem for this Panthers offense. It wasn’t the WRs, and certainly wasn’t the offensive line, which ranks top five in pass protection through two games according to PFF.
In Week 2, the Panthers went three-and-out on 55% of their drives and only had one drive last more than six plays. The worst part? Bryce Young actually had time to throw in this game. But now we get an adult in the room in QB Andy Dalton and he’s looked good the last few times we’ve seen him start for the Panthers and Saints.
But perhaps most importantly, he knows how to run an NFL offense. It’s worth pondering — is Dalton the best quarterback that Johnson has played with in the last 4-5 years? It seems like a crazy question, but I believe the answer is yes. I also believe he’s great at getting open and earning targets.
I might be a sicko, but I’m buying low on Johnson right now.
The sell-high of the week is … J.K. Dobbins
Dobbins has over 130 rushing yards in each of his first two games. He currently leads the NFL with 266 rushing yards, and it doesn’t stop there, as Dobbins ranks No. 1 in rushing EPA and is eighth in success rate according to NFL Pro.
It’s clear he’s been great; I can’t argue with that. The one issue though is he’s only seen six cheat-code opportunities through two weeks. The fantasy cheat codes for running backs are targets and red-zone touches. Dobbins isn’t seeing strong usage in these areas, which doesn’t bode well for future success.
Dobbins is currently a red-hot asset who likely won’t finish the season as the RB1 in fantasy. Right now, Dobbins is still splitting a backfield with Gus Edwards, and even if that doesn’t continue Dobbins’ stock is likely the highest it’s going to be all year. Why is that you ask? Well, he faces the Steelers defense in Week 3.
Sell high on Dobbins for someone like Chris Olave if you can.
