While most Americans focus on the presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the undercard fights on every ballot in the country will determine which party will control the House of Representatives in 2025.
Unlike the U.S. Senate, where winning the election puts you in office for six years, every single House seat is up for grabs each election cycle. Republicans currently control the House by a slim eight-seat majority — 220 to 212 — and there are three vacancies. That means Democrats need to pick up at least five seats to tilt the scales.
There are dozens of competitive races that will determine who holds the all-powerful gavel going into 2025 — and whichever party wins the presidency will be hamstrung without control of the lower chamber of Congress.
Here are 10 toss-up House races to watch on Election Day, and potentially in the days following:
Alaska — Lone District
The only House district in Alaska is held by Democrat Mary Peltola who beat out Republicans Sarah Palin and Nicholas Begich in 2022. With her 2022 win, Peltola became the first Democrat from Alaska to serve in the House since 1972. Peltola’s victory two years ago was due, in part, to Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, which split the Republican vote between Palin and Begich. This year, Peltola is running against Begich, Democrat Eric Hafner, and John Howe of the Independence Party.
Following a September Daily Wire report on Peltola’s transgender stances, the Democrat flipped her position on men competing in women’s sports, saying during a debate in October, “I don’t think that we should have men competing in women’s sports.”
In the most recent polls of the race, Begich leads Peltola by around 4 points. In Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, a candidate must reach over 50% before being declared the winner. The Decision Desk HQ forecast currently gives Begich a 62% chance of winning the race.
Arizona — 1st District
Republican David Schweikert has held the 1st District seat in Arizona since 2023 after serving as the 6th District’s congressman for 10 years. Schweikert has focused on fiscal conservatism and addressing the national debt. Schweikert squeaked out a victory by just over 3,000 votes in 2022 over Democrat Jevin Hodge. His opponent this year is Democrat Amish Shah, a current state representative and emergency room doctor, who has focused on abortion.
Parts of Arizona’s 1st District fall in Maricopa County, where election officials said last month that it could take up to 13 days to “complete tabulation of all the ballots that come in.” Maricopa County, which is the largest county in Arizona, was also at the center of controversy in the aftermath of the 2020 and 2022 elections.
The Decision Desk HQ forecast currently gives Schweikert a 68% chance of winning re-election.
Arizona — 6th District
First-term Republican Juan Ciscomani is running for re-election in Arizona’s 6th District and is in a tight race with the Democrat he barely beat in 2022, Kirsten Engel. Ciscomani has centered his campaign on pushing for more border security amid the record border encounters during the Biden-Harris administration. Engel, meanwhile, is focused on pro-abortion policies.
The 6th Congressional District is located in Arizona’s southeast corner. The Decision Desk HQ forecast currently gives Ciscomani an 83% chance of winning.
California — 13th District
First-term Republican John Duarte faces off against Democrat Adam Gray in California’s 13th District. Duarte narrowly defeated Gray in the 2022 election. The freshman congressman is a moderate Republican who officially endorsed Trump earlier this year after the former president was convicted on 34 felony counts in a Manhattan court. Gray, who served in California’s State Assembly, lost to Duarte in 2022 by just over 500 votes in what was one of the closest House races that year.
The Decision Desk HQ forecast gives Duarte a 55% chance of defeating Gray again.
Colorado — 8th District
Another freshman congressman, Democrat Yadira Caraveo, is being challenged by Republican Gabe Evans, a state representative and former police officer and Army captain. The race in Colorado’s 8th District has grown closer in recent weeks. Caraveo currently has a 71% chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ.
Iowa — 3rd District
Republican Zach Nunn, a first-term congressman, faces Democrat Lanon Baccam in Iowa’s 3rd District. Baccam, a veteran and federal Agriculture Department official, has hammered Nunn over the issue of abortion. Nunn, meanwhile, has focused his campaign on the economy and has hit the trail with Iowa Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds.
Nunn pulled off an upset over Democrat Rep. Cindy Axne in 2022, helping the GOP secure control of the House. Decision Desk HQ gives Nunn a 55% chance of winning.
Michigan — 7th District
After Democrat Rep. Elissa Slotkin entered the race for retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s seat, Michigan’s 7th District was thrown wide open with Republican Tom Barrett seeking to flip the seat for the GOP. Curtis Hertel is challenging Barrett in hopes of keeping the district in the hands of the Democrats. Barrett lost to Slotkin by around 5 points in the 2022 election.
Hertel was recently criticized for saying on video that Americans “owe a debt” to illegal immigrants, adding that he has no “interest in deporting anybody.”
Current polling shows Barrett with a slight edge over Hertel. Barrett has a 63% chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ.
Michigan — 8th District
Another district in the battleground state of Michigan could be a pick-up for Republicans. Democrat Rep. Dan Kildee, who represented Michigan’s 8th District, announced last year that he would not seek re-election, creating another open House seat. Republican Paul Junge has focused on securing the border while Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has focused on abortion.
According to Decision Desk HQ, Junge currently holds a 55% chance of winning the race.
New York — 19th District
Republicans could lose a seat in New York’s 19th District where incumbent Republican Marc Molinaro faces a tough challenge from Democrat Josh Riley. Molinaro has voted across the party line while in Congress, but during the campaign, he has focused on immigration, a top issue for Republicans. Riley served as general counsel to U.S. Senator Al Franken on the Senate Judiciary Committee and has “championed an effort in federal court to ratify the federal Equal Rights Amendment, which would make abortion access a constitutional right.”
The 2024 race is a rematch of 2022 when Molinaro won by nearly 4 points. Molinaro was favored to win the race for most of the 2024 campaign, according to forecasts by Decision Desk HQ, but now Riley currently has a 58% chance of winning.
Oregon — 5th District
In Oregon’s 5th District, Republicans are hoping to hold onto another seat as incumbent Lori Chavez-Deremer faces Democrat challenger Janelle Bynum. Chavez-Deremer won in a tight race in 2022 over Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner, giving the Republicans another important seat in its slim majority.
The Daily Wire reported in September that Bynum sponsored legislation that sent hundreds of thousands of dollars to a program that discriminates against U.S. citizens and offers down payment assistance to illegal immigrants.
Chavez-Deremer is narrowly favored to win the race, standing at 58% in Decision Desk HQ’s forecast.
Many other close races to watch
Of course, this isn’t an all-encompassing list of House races to keep an eye on come Election Night. But each one will play a pivotal role in determining which party will be in power in January. Decision Desk HQ gives Republicans a 53% chance of maintaining a majority in the House, with the overall seat projections showing the GOP at 218 and Democrats at 217.
