2025-26 College football bowl schedule, odds, picks: Best bets for every bowl game

The 2025-26 college football bowl schedule has now been completed, including the matchups for Round 1 of the College Football Playoff. With 36 bowls (and the CFP) to wager on, there are plenty of betting opportunities during bowl season, which begins this Saturday, Dec. 13.

One bettor at BetMGM already had a not-so-merry start to the holiday season, losing $615,000 on three college football futures wagers when Texas, Penn State and Clemson all missed the CFP.

Despite losing 13-10 to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game, Ohio State remains the +225 favorite to win the CFP at sportsbooks, followed by Indiana (+275) and Georgia (+500).

Where are the betting opportunities in college football bowl season over the next few weeks?

Our college football handicapping trio of Corbie Craig, Ed Feng, Matt Russell will provide a best bet on every game below.

It’s important to remember that bowl season is unique in that bettors need to consider a number of factors that don’t usually apply in the regular season:

Motivation of each team to be playing in the bowl
Coaching changes
Weather for game and at schools’ respective campuses
Player injuries and opt-outs for NFL Draft
Players entering transfer portal

Note: This file will be updated. Odds courtesy of BetMGM, lines subject to change.

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl: Pittsburgh (-9.5, 56.5) vs. East Carolina

Russell: In terms of line value, from the opening lines on Sunday, Dec. 7 to when the games kick off, Bowl-betting giveth and Bowl-betting taketh away.

For example, when Pittsburgh opened -6.5, and we at THE WINDOW had it projected at -7.5, we should have quickly hopped on the Panthers, as it came as no surprise that the line went through the key number of -7. We can regret not getting coveted closing line value, especially as it’s ticked up further, but in the current market, amidst the acknowledgement that ECU quarterback Katin Houser is opting out (and Pitt’s emergent freshman QB Mason Heintschel is not), it’s worth asking, is that move warranted?

This line might have opened a little short because the Panthers might have been seen as a prime candidate for an upset, against a Pirates defense that led the American Conference in Success Rate allowed. That leaves the key factor for a bet being whether the Pirates have a QB capable of outperforming the perceived gap between him and Houser.

The Pirates’ choices aren’t bad, and if we had to guess, the starter will be freshman three-star recruit Chaston Ditta who plays a little like a taller Diego Pavia. Speaking of Vanderbilt, ECU should also mix in the well-travelled dual-threat Mike Wright, who started in Nashville, but is on his fourth team in six years. Athletic enough to run for almost 1,400 yards in his career at QB, while also playing some receiver this season, the Pirates could have some fun stuff prepared.

If they can connect on anything explosive, they should be able to hang around long enough to stay inside the number against Narduzzi, who’s 2-5 in Bowl games at Pitt.

Bet: East Carolina +9.5

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: Clemson (-3.5, 48.5) vs. Penn State

Craig: Penn State enters bowl season in a rare state of limbo, and it’s fair to question just how motivated this roster will be when kickoff finally arrives.

The Nittany Lions have seen the foundation of their program shift rapidly over the past few weeks. The head coach is gone, the quarterback position is unsettled and the recruiting momentum that once defined Penn State football has cratered — currently trending among the weakest classes in the Power Five. To make matters worse, the search for a new head coach dragged on longer than expected, leaving players in a prolonged state of uncertainty about the direction of the program.

That kind of instability matters in bowl games. These matchups already struggle with motivation, and when players are unsure who they’ll be playing for next season — or whether their role will even exist — the incentive to suit up can fade quickly. While nothing is official yet, this feels like a spot where opt-outs could begin to surface as kickoff approaches, particularly from players with NFL aspirations or those eyeing the transfer portal.

This wager is less about on-field X’s and O’s and more about betting on human behavior. Bowl season consistently rewards bettors who identify fractured locker rooms and fading buy-in, and Penn State checks several of those boxes right now. Until clarity arrives at the top, it’s difficult to expect full commitment from a roster navigating one of the most turbulent stretches the program has faced in years.

Bet: Clemson -3.5 (-105)

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Feng: Penn State has had an awful season, but QB Ethan Grunkemeyer has done a solid job in relief of Drew Allar. At The Power Rank, I take a QB’s statistics like success rate and yards per pass attempt and adjust for opposing defenses.

Grunkemeyer is expected to have a 46.1% passing success rate against an average FBS pass defense — better than the 40.8% average and not far off Allar’s 46.4%. Grunkemeyer is expected to throw for 6.48 yards per pass attempt, slightly lower than Allar. Grunkemeyer has come in as the backup and taken safe plays at a high rate, and his change from last season seems to be going deep more often.

All of my metrics favor Penn State in this game, as my primary model has them by six over Clemson at a neutral site. Both teams have a load of NFL talent opting out, and this number of players could grow for both programs.

You can question the motivation of the Penn State players with an uncertain coaching situation (DC Jim Knowles is already off to Tennessee). However, every player now has financial motivation to put another good game on tape.

Bet: Penn State +3.5

Go Bowling Military Bowl: Pittsburgh (-9.5, 57.5) vs. East Carolina

Russell: In terms of line value, from the opening lines on Dec. 7 to when the games kick off, bowl betting giveth and bowl betting taketh away.

For example, when Pittsburgh opened -6.5, and we at THE WINDOW had it projected at -7.5, we should have quickly hopped on the Panthers, as it came as no surprise the line went through the key number of -7. We can regret not getting coveted closing line value, especially as it’s ticked up further, but in the current market, with the knowledge ECU quarterback Katin Houser is opting out (and Pitt’s emergent freshman Mason Heintschel is not), it’s worth asking, is that move warranted?

This line might have opened a little short because the Panthers might have been seen as a prime candidate for an upset against a Pirates defense that led the American Conference in success rate allowed. That leaves the key factor for a bet being whether the Pirates have a QB capable of outperforming the perceived gap without Houser.

The Pirates’ choices aren’t bad, and if we had to guess, the starter will be freshman three-star recruit Chaston Ditta, who plays a little like a taller Diego Pavia. Speaking of Vanderbilt, ECU should also mix in well-traveled dual-threat Mike Wright, who started in Nashville but is on his fourth team in six years. Athletic enough to run for almost 1,400 yards in his career at quarterback while also playing some receiver this season, the Pirates could have some fun stuff prepared. If they can connect on anything explosive, they should be able to hang around long enough to stay inside the number against Pat Narduzzi, who’s 2-5 in bowl games at Pitt.

Bet: ECU +9.5

Kinder’s Texas Bowl: LSU vs. Houston (-3, 41.5)

Russell: If all things were equal, and this game was lined as if it were the last game of the regular season, LSU would be the three-point favorite on a neutral site, even at the end of a year that went so badly that head coach Brian Kelly was fired and Garrett Nussmeier (a preseason Heisman favorite) was benched. Meanwhile, Houston’s season went so surprisingly well their power rating in the market went up, from a point that would have made the Cougars greater than two touchdown underdogs if they’d met early in the season to being the favorite here.

While the Tigers’ season virtually ended in late October, LSU battled in a pair of games with CFP first-round combatants — Alabama and Oklahoma — with backup QB Michael Van Buren at the helm. Despite ending the year ranked, the 9-3 Cougars also closed 2-2. Their November included losses to West Virginia and at home to TCU, with tight wins against UCF and Baylor.

In order for Houston to be fairly favored, the Cougars have to get extra credit for a season with two quality wins (over Arizona and Arizona State) and a further downgrade to LSU because of potential opt-outs. You can make a case for the former, but the Cougs were underdogs at Baylor in the finale. As for the latter, that assumes the Tigers don’t have ample talent on their defensive depth chart capable of filling in for a few veteran opt-outs.

Bet: LSU +3

Monday, Dec. 29

JLAB Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Southern (-7.5, 59.5) vs. App State

Russell: Appalachian State volunteered to play in this game, but the betting market doesn’t care.

After numerous bowl-eligible teams declined invites to the postseason, eventually the Birmingham Bowl got down to App State on its wish list, and the Mountaineers accepted. Oddsmakers installed Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite, quickly moving to our projection over at THE WINDOW of -3.5. However, since then, it’s shot up to -7.5.

Why? Just because App State’s administration wants the money for appearing in a vbowl game doesn’t mean the players are interested in playing a Sun Belt rematch after a season where they won just twice in conference. As a result, the transfer portal list for potential Mountaineers opt-outs is ample, including quarterbacks AJ Swann and JJ Kohl, who played virtually the same amount this season. In such a disappointing season, if App State had a viable third option, it likely would have given him a try, unless it has some rule where only guys who go by their initials can play quarterback.

Whether it’s Noah Gillon or Billy Wiles at the helm, App State will need to keep up with an Eagles’ offense that was in the top tier of the Sun Belt after it survived an early-season slate that included USC, Jacksonville State and James Madison.

The Georgia Southern defense was notably bad, but App State’s was right behind it in success rate allowed. Eagles quarterback JC French threw for 352 passing yards in their close win over the Mountaineers, and he should be able to produce again, while it would be a surprise if App State’s offense can.

Bet: Georgia Southern -7.5

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl: Iowa vs. Vanderbilt (-5.5, 49.5)

Craig: The narrative says Vanderbilt will try to make a statement after missing the College Football Playoff, and Diego Pavia’s Heisman loss only adds fuel, but my number pushes well under the current total. Pavia’s production has spiked, yet Vanderbilt still ranks 127th in average seconds per play and showed limited explosiveness before its late-season surge.

This feels like the perfect spot to sell high on the Commodores’ offense heading into bowl season.

Bet: Iowa-Vanderbilt under 49.5 (-110)

Feng: It was easy for me to imagine that Pavia would have a strong season in 2025. However, I would have never dreamed that the Vanderbilt offense would rank No. 1 in my adjusted numbers by both success rate and yards per play. Pavia has been fantastic, TE Eli Stowers will play in the NFL and RB Sedrick Alexander continues to break explosive runs.

Iowa has had a long tradition of excellent defenses. However, the current version ranks 23rd in my adjusted success rate. Based on data from the current season, I make Vandy a 7.5-point favorite in this game.

In addition, professional bettor Eddie Walls also likes Vanderbilt, as he said in my newsletter. He expects Vanderbilt to have their entire team while Iowa might miss up to eight starters due to opt outs.

Bet: Vanderbilt -5.5

Friday, Jan. 2

Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State (-3, 56.5)

Corbie: At first glance, it’s hard not to laugh at the idea of Mississippi State playing in a bowl game. This is a team that won just one SEC game all season, a mark so bleak it helped cash an under 1.5 SEC wins ticket from my preseason Yahoo article.

But if you stop at the record, you’re missing the bigger picture. Mississippi State didn’t stumble into five wins — they earned them. Week after week, the Bulldogs competed at a level far above what their win total suggests, facing one of the most unforgiving schedules in college football and rarely looking overmatched. In terms of underlying performance and raw talent, this may quietly be the best five-win team in the country.

That context matters heading into this matchup with Wake Forest. Wake Forest’s offense thrives on change-of-pace looks, using tempo manipulation and delayed reads to create confusion. But Mississippi State has spent an entire season dealing with elite athletes, complex schemes and SEC-level speed. That trial by fire should show up here, particularly against a Wake Forest team that doesn’t possess the same physical ceiling as the Bulldogs.

Talent tends to matter more in bowl settings than resumes, and Mississippi State is loaded with players capable of going toe-to-toe — and potentially overwhelming — Wake Forest across all three phases. Motivation shouldn’t be a concern either, as this bowl represents a chance for the Bulldogs to put a bow on a season that was far more competitive than the standings reflect.

Bet: Mississippi State -3