While we haven’t seen a deluge of upsets at the very top of the polls, this season has taken on a decidedly 2007-like vibe in college football.
When it’s mid-November and programs like Army, Boise State, BYU, Indiana and SMU are controlling their own national championship destinies, it’s time to admit we’re in the midst of a bizarre season.
So why not add one more log to the chaos fire by backing a team that is flying so far under the radar that they’re clipping the tops of trees?
Washington State to make CFP (50/1, BetParx)
Before conference realignment rocked the sport, Pullman, Wash., was already a sleepy outpost in the world of college football.
Encircled by national parks and a 4 ¹/₂-hour drive from the closest major city, it’s easy to understand why people don’t associate Washington State with the big time.
But this program has churned out three top-10 finishes in the past 27 years, complete with a pair of trips to the Rose Bowl.
They’ll never be confused with Georgia or Texas or Notre Dame, but the Cougars are far from a college football footnote.
When it comes to betting — futures in particular — there are two major camps: public and non-public teams. If you want to bet on the Cowboys, Lakers, Yankees or Fighting Irish, you’re going to pay a premium to do so.
Oddsmakers know that they can deflate the odds on public teams and still take action. Non-public teams don’t get nearly as much action from casual bettors, and, as a result, sportsbooks are often content hanging generous or stale numbers on said teams in the futures market.
This Washington State number is both generous and as stale as a week-old loaf of bread.
Let’s dive into the math.
Assuming that Wazzu wins out, ESPN’s Playoff Bracket Predictor assigns the Cougs a 13 percent chance of making the field.
The implied probability of a 50/1 ticket, which is currently out in the market, is 1.96 percent. I’m highly confident that Wazzu can handle New Mexico (SP+ 115th) and Oregon State (91st) on the road.
That would set up a regular-season finale on the Palouse against a dreadful Wyoming squad. An 11-1 finish then requires chaos on championship weekend, but we’re staring down the barrel of a wild finish in early December.
The ACC, Big 12 and SEC all have the potential to knock an at-large candidate out of the running on Championship Saturday by handing them their second or third loss of the season.
The real issues for Wazzu are Notre Dame and Army, who coincidentally face off in two weeks at Yankee Stadium. If the Irish win out, they’re assuredly snagging an at-large bid.
Likewise, if Army upsets Notre Dame and runs the table, they could easily join Boise State inside the top 12, squeezing Wazzu out of the picture completely.
An ideal scenario for Wazzu would be an Army upset of Notre Dame on Nov. 23, followed by a Cadets loss in the AAC title game.
Keep in mind: Notre Dame already lost at home to 5-4 Northern Illinois and Army’s best two wins have come against ECU and North Texas.
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How impactful would that Army/Notre Dame scenario be for the Cougs? My projections would elevate the odds of an 11-1 Wazzu making the CFP in that scenario from 17 percent to 36 percent.
At 36 percent, a fair price for the Cougs to make the CFP would be +175 odd, a far cry from the long-shot odds at which they’re currently going off.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
