It’s flag-planting time — the Los Angeles Lakers are my bet to win the 2025 NBA Finals.
Since the announcement of their blockbuster deal to acquire Luka Doncic there has been no sign of a ceiling for the Lake Show, who are 10-2 since they acquired the Slovenian star.
Much has been made of the Lakers’ incredible turnaround on the defensive end, since they have the No. 1 rated defense (106.9), but it’s also just a completely different roster.
In November, the Lakers were sending out D’Angelo Russell for 25.5 minutes per game, while Cam Reddish was also getting 21.4 minutes.
Russell was shipped out of town for defensive wingman Dorian Finney-Smith, who has been their best defensive player this season despite the limited game.
His defensive rating of 104.1 on defense is by far the best on the team, with Jarred Vanderbilt coming in second while only playing 15.5 minutes per game.
It’s easy to sit here now, when the Lakers are playing their best basketball of the season, and say no one can compete with them. That’s not an accurate representation of what you’re reading.
They are not the best team in the NBA.
But basketball these days, especially with the mass increase in 3-point shooting, is a lot like a blackjack hand.
You’re really just betting on, or watching, a few cards being dished out by a dealer.
There’s so much variance that comes with 3-point shooting that it can ride you to the Finals.
Last year, Doncic led the Mavericks to the NBA Finals thanks to hot 3-point shooting numbers.
Dallas shot 36 percent from 3-point range in last year’s playoffs on 33.1 attempts. They shot the same percentage as the Celtics, although Boston took 40.2 3-point attempts per game.
Since acquiring Doncic, the Lakers are ninth in 3-point percentage (36.2 percent), and that’s despite their shiny new star, who takes a majority of their 3-pointers, shooting 24.1 percent from deep in February.
It’s not just that their defense is truly the No. 1 unit in the league; it’s that their ceiling on the offensive side of the ball hasn’t even come close to its potential.
The Lakers now have a nine-man lineup that can compete with any in the NBA.
| Team (odds to win the finals) | Nine-man rotation |
|---|---|
| Celtics (+185) |
Starters: Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis Bench: Payton Pritchard, Al Horford, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet |
| Thunder (+200) | Starters: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein Bench: Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace |
| Cavaliers (+650) | Starters: Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, DeAndre Hunter, Jarrett Allen, Bench: Caris LeVert, Ty Jerome, Max Strus, Isaac Okoro, Georges Niang/Dean Wade |
| Nuggets (12/1) | Starters: Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic Bench: Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Dario Saric/DeAndre Jordon |
| Lakers (12/1) | Starters: Austin Reaves, Luka Doncic, Dorian Finney-Smith, LeBron James, Rui Hachimura Bench: Dalton Knecht, Gabe Vincent, Jarred Vanderbilt, Maxi Kleber/Jaxson Hayes |
Are they the best in that group right now? No.
But are their odds good enough to bet? Absolutely.
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The Thunder’s entire lineup is far too young to be sitting at +200 odds, considering the Nuggets and Lakers are breathing down their neck with a wealth of experience, and their top talent arguably besting Oklahoma City’s.
We’re betting the number here, 16/1, since it’s an obscene price to still have considering sharp Vegas book Circa has Los Angeles at 10/1, the fourth-best odds on the market, ahead of the Nuggets at 12/1.
PICK: Lakers to win the NBA Finals (16/1, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
