Perhaps no juxtaposition captures how much the NHL has changed in the last decade more than the stat line of an average goaltender.
In 2015-16, the average NHL goaltender posted a .915 save percentage and a 2.51 goals-against average. Last year, those numbers dipped to .896 and 2.88.
Scoring is up nearly a goal per game since 2015-16, but that’s not the only change that has impacted how we view goaltending in the modern era.
The NHL’s puck-tracking data is much sharper than it was a decade ago, so there are fewer shots on goal that go into the ledger (for example, a muffin from the point that is going a couple of inches wide won’t be counted), and the way teams play is also very different.
A lot of coaching staffs, thanks to the advent of analytics, emphasize shot quality over quantity, meaning goaltenders may face fewer shots in a given game, but they’re facing more high-danger chances.
All of this has made handicapping the Vezina Trophy, already one of the most unpredictable markets in hockey, even trickier.
While perennial contenders like Andrei Vasilevskiy (2026), Igor Shesterkin (2022) and Connor Hellebuyck (2020, 2024, and 2025) have accounted for five of the last seven Vezinas, the other two winners in that span were shocks.
Most sportsbooks didn’t even list odds for Linus Ullmark before he won the award in 2023, and Marc-Andre Fleury was a 36-year-old long shot when he took home the honor in 2021.
Further complicating matters this season is that Hellebuyck, the +500 preseason favorite at bet365 Sportsbook, is in the middle of a contract holdout after requesting a trade from the Winnipeg Jets.
Logan Thompson (+700), Vasilevskiy (+750), Ilya Sorokin (+800) and Igor Shesterkin (+900) round out the top five on the betting board.
2026-27 Vezina Trophy picks, best bets
Linus Ullmark, Ottawa Senators (60/1, bet365)
Technically, the Vezina Trophy is an individual award given to the league’s best goaltender. But in a just world, it would be a team honor because defensive structure heavily impacts who tops the ballot.
Very few teams made life easier on their goaltenders last season than the Ottawa Senators. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Sens allowed the second-fewest expected goals, fourth-fewest high-danger scoring chances, and third-fewest shots on goal at 5-on-5.
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By those marks, Ottawa should have been a juggernaut in 2025-26, but the Sens were let down by their goalies, including Ullmark.
However, Ullmark was dealing with personal issues throughout the campaign and even took a leave of absence midway through the season.
The Swede was much better for the Sens down the stretch, and played admirably in the playoffs (albeit in a sweep defeat against the Hurricanes), which gives me confidence that he can carry that momentum into a fresh year.
Joel Hofer, St. Louis Blues (125/1, bet365)
The NHL produces at least one breakout netminder each season, and Joel Hofer is my pick to be the guy this year.
Hofer has been a steady backup for Jordan Binnington in St. Louis for the past three campaigns, but the 26-year-old stands a strong chance of taking the No. 1 job this season, especially since Binnington is a pending free agent.
In addition to his solid surface-level numbers — Hofer owns a .908 save percentage in 115 career games — the 6-foot-5 netminder also posted some strong underlying metrics, saving 11.7 goals above expected in 46 appearances last year.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
