We’re in for a real hootenanny of a Heisman Trophy hunt in 2026.
The face of the race is Arch Manning, just as he was at this time last year, but the third-generation quarterback isn’t a runaway favorite.
Depending on the sportsbook, Manning is either slightly ahead of or behind Notre Dame signal-caller CJ Carr. And those two are a hop in front of Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
At bet365 Sportsbook, Carr has +700 odds, Manning is at +750 and Smith is right there at +800.
Manning, Carr, and Smith may well be the frontrunners ahead of Week 0, but this is not a three-horse race.
Darian Mensah, who is now at Miami after spells at Tulane and Duke, is a trendy fourth-favorite at 10/1. Oregon’s Dante Moore will get plenty of support at 11/1 and so will Ohio State’s Julian Sayin at 12/1.
Trinidad Chambliss, last season’s breakout star at Ole Miss, is also 12/1.
Throw in Josh Hoover, who took over for Fernando Mendoza at Indiana, and you’ve got eight players — seven of them quarterbacks — between +700 and 14/1 odds at bet365. That’s nuts.
This thing could go in a million different directions, which is not how it felt a year ago when Manning, Garrett Nussmeier and Smith were the leading candidates.
None of them made the trip to New York, and only Smith was in the top six in voting at the end of the season.
And that’s not an outlier. In fact, it’s trending toward the norm that the Heisman winner comes from nowhere. Six of the last 10 winners were at least 30/1 before the season started, and the last two (Mendoza and Travis Hunter) were 50/1 or higher. We’ve also had two 100/1 winners since 2016 (Devonta Smith and Lamar Jackson).
So while Manning and the favorites will get most of the oxygen right now, don’t be afraid to take some shots down the board, because things will look very different, very quickly.
Top of the board: Josh Hoover, Indiana (14/1, bet365)
Replacing Mendoza is going to be quite the feat, but Hoover is bringing quite the resume with him to Indiana.
The Texas native threw for 9,629 passing yards and 71 touchdowns in his three seasons with TCU, and he should add plenty to those totals with the supporting cast — and coaching staff — surrounding him in Bloomington.
Catch up on The Post’s college football betting predictions and previews for the 2026 season
- The Post’s college football betting roundtable: National champion, Heisman winners
- Arch Manning, Texas best bets: Back the Longhorns?
- Big Ten preview: Can this long shot make a run?
- Notre Dame football odds, picks, predictions: Fighting Irish will reach championship heights
- Five bold predictions for the 2026 college football season
Long shot: Byrum Brown, Auburn (55/1, Fanatics)
This is my favorite bet of the bunch.
While Mendoza led Indiana to the promised land last year, the two Heisman winners before him, Jayden Daniels and Travis Hunter, were not on title contenders. It’s a misconception that you need to be on an elite team to win this award.
That’s good news for Byrum Brown, because I don’t expect Auburn to contend for all that much in 2026.
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That said, Brown is set up to bring some swagger back to The Plains after some uninspiring campaigns under Hugh Freeze.
A true dual-threat quarterback, Brown racked up 3,158 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, plus 1,121 rushing yards (not including sacks) and 14 touchdowns for South Florida in 2025.
It was the second time in the last three seasons that the rising senior threw for at least 3,000 yards and rushed for at least 1,000 more in the same campaign.
And here’s some more good news. Brown’s head coach at USF, Alex Golesh, brought him to Auburn.
Non-quarterback: Kewan Lacy, Ole Miss (120/1, DraftKings)
Chambliss was the breakout sensation at Ole Miss in 2025, but Lacy was just as important to the Rebels during their run to the semifinals.
The 5-foot-11 tailback did it all for the Rebels, amassing 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns on 305 carries. That’s good enough for 5.1 yards per clip.
Another season like that will put Lacy in the conversation, and that’s all we’re asking at this price.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
