For the first time since 2016, the Houston Astros’ offseason began in September, not October or November. Houston’s streak of eight years qualifying for the playoffs was snapped, as the Astros were unable to overcome a barrage of injuries and ultimately found themselves on the outside looking in, ceding the division crown to Seattle. It was a close call — they missed out on the final AL wild-card spot via tiebreaker, as the Astros and Tigers both finished with 87 wins, but Detroit won the season series — but failing to reach the playoffs stings all the same, particularly for a franchise used to making the annual pilgrimage to baseball’s fall tournament.
That unfamiliar ending to the season brings us to a critical juncture for the Astros as they look to reassert themselves as contenders in 2026. Over the past two seasons, they’ve fallen notably short of the sky-high standard set by their seven consecutive trips to the ALCS from 2017 to 2023. No longer can Houston rest on its reputation as a default contender in the American League; there is work to be done to rebuild or at least restructure the roster to a more formidable state.
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As the offseason activity picks up with the winter meetings fast approaching, here are five big questions facing the team from Space City.
1. What is the plan for replacing Framber Valdez, assuming he departs in free agency?
After a half-decade as an anchor at or near the top of Houston’s rotation, the free-agent left-hander is widely expected to sign with a different team, becoming the latest main character from this era of Astros baseball to move on to a new chapter elsewhere. Houston has rarely shopped at the very top of the free-agent market, so the Astros retaining Valdez or pursuing another upper-echelon arm such as Dylan Cease never felt especially realistic (and the price for Cease only reinforced that notion). The Astros can certainly take solace in the sizable step forward taken by Hunter Brown in 2025 — an ace is still in place — but Valdez’s departure amplifies the uncertainties beyond Brown.
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Which free-agent arms could be a fit in Houston? Zac Gallen and Michael King both offer considerable upside and shouldn’t cost a nine-figure deal, but forfeiting a draft pick to sign either might not be of interest for a team with something of a depleted farm system. A more sensible tier of arms to target would be Lucas Giolito, Merrill Kelly or Chris Bassitt — durable right-handers who have demonstrated mid-rotation upside on occasion and at the very least can offer competent innings in bulk. Of course, if adding a veteran starter at a relatively low cost is the priority, it would hardly be surprising to see a reunion with Justin Verlander, who was quietly quite effective for the Giants in the second half after a rough start to his age-42 season.
Several intriguing internal options to backfill Valdez’s innings exist as well, albeit with varying levels of optimism based on their 2025 showings. Cristian Javier showed flashes of impact in his return from elbow surgery in the second half, but Lance McCullers Jr. was downright terrible in his return after several years of injuries and should not be counted on as a realistic option for in 2026. Spencer Arrighetti showed real strikeout ability as a rookie in 2024, but his sophomore season was a lost year due to injury. Perhaps former top prospect and still hard-thrower Nate Pearson can thrive in a multi-inning role after signing quickly with Houston as a free agent last month. 2024 late-career breakout Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski (acquired from Chicago in the Kyle Tucker trade) are also expected back from elbow surgery at some point next year.
The Astros can generally be relied on to conjure up competent run-prevention strategies, regardless of who is on the mound. But replacing Valdez is no small task and should not be taken lightly by this front office.
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2. How does Carlos Correa’s presence impact Isaac Paredes?
Maybe a Verlander reunion comes to pass, maybe not. But the Astros already went out of their way to bring another fan favorite back into the fold when they swung a deal in July to reacquire Carlos Correa from Minnesota, a stunning transaction that served as a dramatic salary dump for the Twins as they shed payroll amidst a lost season. Correa’s return is a boon for a fan base that surely missed cheering for the charismatic infielder, but it also raises some interesting questions about the infield entering 2026.
Recall that Correa’s integration into the lineup at third base, in deference to star shortstop Jeremy Peña, was possible only because of All-Star third baseman Isaac Paredes’ hamstring injury. If we assume Paredes is healthy entering spring training, where is he going to play? If Correa is locked in at the hot corner, Paredes’ path to regular at-bats — which he clearly deserves based on his pre-injury performance — would be at first base, where Christian Walker is owed $40 million over the next two seasons, or DH, a spot the Astros would reportedly prefer to rotate between Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve. Paredes played some second base with the Rays in 2022 and 2023 but is not considered a viable defender there at this stage in his career.
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One option would be to seek a trade of Walker and have Paredes handle first, but finding a trade partner for Walker — not to mention the optics of moving on from him so quickly after the disastrous and eerily similar Jose Abreu contract — would be tough. Paredes certainly offers more trade value on his own, but dealing a bat of his caliber for a return that definitively makes the roster better could be challenging. Either way, it would seem that Houston needs to make at least one move involving this part of the roster for the team to function properly.
3. How does Jose Altuve fit on the roster?
One potential solution to the Paredes problem is to play Alvarez regularly in left field and Altuve at his longtime post at second base. But it seems the Astros are indeed committed to moving Altuve away from the keystone, based on his troubling defensive trajectory, and last season’s ill-fated attempt to move him to left field was abandoned in response to injuries elsewhere on the roster more than how that move was going. Plus, manager Joe Espada was adamant even before Alvarez’s injury-marred 2025 that the team would prefer to limit the slugger’s defensive responsibilities.
As such, in an effort to keep both players in the lineup as much as possible, the preferred arrangement would be to have them alternate between DH and left field. If this helps Altuve and Alvarez stay healthy, there’s a good chance the duo can contribute in a big way to Houston’s run-production efforts without hurting their defense too terribly. But even if that happens, there remains one obvious question …
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4. Who is going to play second base?
If Altuve’s days as the every-day second baseman are indeed over, what’s the succession plan? After Altuve, the three most frequent starters at second in 2025 were Mauricio Dubon, Brendan Rodgers and Ramon Urias, none of whom is still on the roster. Urias was non-tendered, Rodgers became a free agent, and Dubon was traded to Atlanta in exchange for shortstop Nick Allen. Allen is a terrific defender at shortstop and surely a capable glove at second, but his paltry offensive output does not warrant regular playing time; he’s a bench option at best. As far as other internal options go, Brice Matthews — Houston’s first-round pick in 2023 who made his big-league debut in 2025 and made 11 starts at second base — is an exciting athlete who has performed well in the minors but harbors significant hit-tool risk.
As the roster stands now, Matthews deserves the opportunity to win the starting job out of spring training. But Houston could also look outside the organization for a more stable option at second. St. Louis’ Brendan Donovan is an ideal trade target, and the Astros reportedly have interest in pursuing him in a deal, though they are hardly alone in that regard and would likely need to outbid several competitors to land the soon-to-be 29-year-old, who just made his first All-Star team and offers defensive versatility beyond just second base.
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Donovan is a terrific fit, but he isn’t the only accomplished second baseman who could potentially be had in a trade; Jeff McNeil and Brandon Lowe also fit what Houston could be looking for if offense is the priority. Notably fewer options exist in free agency, but the Astros could explore another attempt at bringing in Jorge Polanco, whom they reportedly pursued last offseason before he returned to Seattle. Polanco would certainly boost the lineup — and deal a significant blow to a division rival — but he’s a poor defender who might fit best at DH sooner rather than later.
5. What’s going on in the outfield?
If we grant that left field will be occupied by some combination of Alvarez and Altuve, the other two spots could be filled in a variety of ways based on how this offseason shakes out. Center fielder Jake Meyers — a fantastic defender who enjoyed a mini-breakout with the bat in 2025 — is reportedly in trade talks as Houston seeks rotation reinforcements, perhaps an indication that adding an arm in free agency is less likely. Should Meyers stay put, his glove alone would make him a reasonable every-day option, but he could also platoon with lefty-hitting prospect Zach Cole, who showed glimpses of impact ability but also struck out a ton in his September cameo. If Meyers is dealt, that indicates a pretty significant vote of confidence from the front office that Cole can translate his impressive physical tools into reliable production despite the whiffs.
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Right field is arguably even more compelling. Cam Smith — the top prospect acquired from the Cubs in the Kyle Tucker deal — acquitted himself well early in his rookie season after starring in spring training amidst a position switch from third base to right. But Smith fell off a cliff in the second half, hitting .154/.247/.242 in 170 plate appearances after the All-Star break. That could merely be a sign that the 22-year-old was physically worn down, having played the longest season of his life, or it could be a sign that he needs more development in the minors, where he barely played before making his debut with Houston.
Then there’s Jesus Sanchez, who scuffled badly after being acquired from the Marlins at the trade deadline but remains on the roster as a possible left-handed option to handle right field. Sanchez is a clearly flawed but more-proven-than-Smith hitter who could settle in as a slugging contributor toward the bottom of the lineup. Smith is obviously more important to Houston’s long-term plans, but Sanchez — or another internal option such as Taylor Trammell or Zach Dezenzo — could be better suited to handle right field in the immediate future.
There’s enough uncertainty in center and right that the Astros might be wise to pursue an external addition in the outfield. There’s no shortage of options on the free-agent market, and that’s true even once you get past the elite options such as Tucker and Cody Bellinger, who would be well out of Houston’s price range. From Harrison Bader to Mike Yastrzemski to Cedric Mullins to Max Kepler and more, there’s a variety of outfielders on the open market who could make sense as plug-and-play options for the Astros over the less-proven in-house candidates.
