A new swing-state survey suggests people who voted for the Democratic president four years ago are having Biden remorse.
And they’re turning to Donald Trump, per a Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In fact, Biden 2020 voters are more likely to back the ex-prez than Trump 2020 voters are to embrace Kamala Harris, Tim Walz and their so-called New Way Forward.
And this is the case in all nine states polled.
Between 9% and 13% of former Biden backers say they will vote for Trump; only between 4% and 10% of Trump 2020 voters look ready to buzz into the K-Hive.
That starts Trump off with an advantage of a few points in every state.
Between 85% and 91% of 2020 Trump voters will vote for him again, while only between 79% and 88% of 2020 Biden voters say they’ll vote for Harris.
Trump needs all the help he can get, given the tightness of the polling overall, including deadlocked races in four states.
Harris and Trump are yoked at 47% each in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and at 45% in Nevada. Combined, these states have 46 electoral votes.
And neither candidate has a path to victory without at least some of these states falling their way, as both are under 270 electoral votes without them.
Harris leads Trump in Michigan (46% to 45%) and Minnesota (50% to 44%), where the selection of Gov. Walz as her running mate doesn’t seem to be putting the state away.
Trump leads Harris in Florida 50% to 45%, in Georgia 48% to 46% and in North Carolina 48% to 47%.
Voters are largely dialed into their choices, with third-party candidates almost completely marginalized.
In Georgia, 2% of voters don’t know who they back. And in Minnesota and Pennsylvania, 3% are undecided. All other states in the survey have 4% who haven’t made choices, except for Michigan (7%) and Nevada (8%).
One potential advantage for Harris: She is above water in terms of favorability in all nine states, with a range of +2 in North Carolina to +10 in Michigan. Trump is underwater in Arizona, Nevada, Minnesota and North Carolina.
